USD/JPY long-term price forecasts 2024, 2025
J.P. Morgan: 133 - 137 (2024) and 110 (2025)
Goldman Sachs: 150 - 155 (2024) and N.A. (2025)
Société Générale: 130 (2024) and 110 (2025)
Market consensus (curated by Bloomberg): 120 - 135 (2024) and N.A. (2025)
Traders Union short term signal for USD/JPY on the 1D timeframe is Strong buy.
The strength of the yen against the dollar has long been a focal point for investors and policymakers. As we gaze into the economic crystal ball of 2024, the question emerges: Will the yen fortify its position against the almighty dollar?
The answer, as we will explore, is not written in the stars but in the ledgers and policy books of the world's central monetary institutions.
What is the future value of yen?
The future value of the yen is subject to fluctuation based on Japan's economic policies and global financial trends, with projections for 2024 and 2025 suggesting possible strengthening.
How strong is the yen compared to the dollar?
Currently, the yen's strength against the dollar varies, with recent trends showing a weaker yen, but forecasts indicate a potential reversal as Japan's monetary policy may normalize. For further insights into yen’s relative strength, read our article on USD/JPY forecast for today by Traders Union analysts.
Is it worth investing in yen?
Investing in yen could be worth considering if you're betting on the forecasted appreciation in the coming years, but it should be done with caution and awareness of market volatility.
Why is yen so weak?
The yen's weakness can often be attributed to Japan's long-standing policy of low interest rates and the country's struggle with deflation, alongside other complex economic factors.
As we tread cautiously into 2024, the financial world's eyes are firmly fixed on the currency tango between the yen and the dollar. The potency of the yen hinges on a multitude of factors, with central bank policies leading the charge.
In an expected move, the Federal Reserve is poised to slash interest rates, in stark contrast to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) forecasted decision to escalate theirs. This pivotal divergence could be the fulcrum on which the USD/JPY exchange rate pivots, potentially ushering in a period of yen appreciation.
But the plot thickens as we consider the myriad of other elements at play. The impending US election looms large on the horizon, its outcome a potential harbinger of economic policy shifts and resultant market turbulence. In tandem, global economic health, geopolitical stability, and unexpected black swan events stand as stalwart influencers, each capable of swaying the delicate balance of currency valuation.
A weekly chart of the USD / JPY pair
The long-term chart of USD/JPY presents a narrative of sustained upward momentum within a defined bullish channel, punctuated by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
The 150 yen per dollar level looks like a psychological trigger - because exceeding that level is thought to trigger a reaction from the Japanese authorities to support the yen (which is what happened in the second half of 2022).
Currently, the pair is testing the upper bounds of this channel, a significant juncture that could either reinforce the prevailing trend or signal an impending reversal. Such technical posture invites contemplation over the sustainability of the dollar's dominance and the yen's potential resurgence.
For a more granular analysis and expert forecasts, you may refer to the comprehensive insights in our article US dollar to Japanese yen Signals and Price Predictions.
The financial tapestry of the Forex market is complex, with currency predictions often resembling educated conjectures rather than certainties. Yet, as we look toward 2024 and 2025, a semblance of consensus emerges among leading financial institutions about the trajectory of the Japanese yen.
Goldman Sachs: For 2024, Goldman Sachs anchors its forecast in the belief that the yen will cede ground to the dollar. A projection sees the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 150 in the next quarter, cresting at 155 in half a year, before returning to 150 over a twelve-month period. This outlook is sculpted by a cocktail of factors: persistent inflationary pressures, the risk of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities, and the expectation of US interest rates remaining on an elevated plateau. Goldman Sachs adopts a bearish outlook for the yen for the upcoming six months, driven by the dynamics of these macroeconomic indicators.
JP Morgan: Turning to JP Morgan, their analysis paints a contrasting picture for the yen in 2024. The esteemed financial firm forecasts a moderate appreciation of the yen against the dollar, anticipating a range between 133 to 137. This strengthening is attributed to the growing perception that US interest rates have peaked, coupled with a forecasted shift towards a more conventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.
Extending to 2025, Societe Generale, through the lens of JP Morgan's research, envisages a downward trajectory for the USD/JPY pair, with average levels potentially circling around 110. This reflects a substantial depreciation of approximately 22.63% from today's figures, a move that could redefine the currency landscape.
Market consensus, curated by Bloomberg, aligns with the view that the yen is poised for a rally, potentially dipping to the 120 mark against the dollar. This bullish sentiment for the yen stems from the anticipation of the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rates—a policy reversal that could be a game-changer.
These forecasts are not plucked from thin air but are instead based on a series of interlinked factors. The divergence in interest rate policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is a primary driver, with the gap between US Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds yields serving as a compass for the direction of USD/JPY.
Other economic barometers—like trade balances, inflation rates, and the scale of corporate governance reforms—also weave into the narrative, each thread contributing to the strength or weakness of the yen.
The yen's future seems to be at a crossroads. On one side, predictions of strengthening are bolstered by potential policy reversals and economic adjustments. On the other, there remain persuasive arguments for its continued decline, tied to inflation and interest rate dynamics.
The only certainty in currency prediction is uncertainty itself, yet with the insights from these financial behemoths, investors and analysts alike can navigate these turbulent waters with a touch more confidence.
For further insights, visit our page: USDJPY Analysis, USDJPY Signals And Online Chart.
USD/JPY forecast by TU is prepared automatically on the basis of technical analysis of moving averages and indicators for each timeframe (interval) separately. Select the timeframe you need to find out USD/JPY price prediction for today.
NOTE!
Signals may differ on different timeframes. If you want to hold the USD/JPY for longer than 1 week/1 month, it is best to use the signals on daily and weekly timeframes. Timeframes from 5 minutes to 1 hour are best suitable for short-term transactions.
Best Broker Recommended for Trading USD/JPY
Suitable for those who want to earn a profit from price fluctuations.
Best Broker Recommended for Holding USD/JPY
Suitable for those who want to invest for the long term.
The fate of the yen through 2024 and 2025 hinges on a delicate balance of economic policies and global market dynamics. While some financial institutions like Goldman Sachs predict a weaker yen in the short term, others, including JP Morgan and Societe Generale, foresee a potential strengthening as Japan's monetary policy normalizes and the US interest rate hike cycle reaches its zenith.
This dichotomy of perspectives underscores the complexity of currency forecasting, reminding us that while educated predictions can guide us, the financial markets invariably retain an element of unpredictability. As investors and policymakers navigate this uncertain terrain, the contrasting forecasts serve as beacons, illuminating the path of possibilities for the yen against the dollar.
A broker is a legal entity or individual that performs as an intermediary when making trades in the financial markets. Private investors cannot trade without a broker, since only brokers can execute trades on the exchanges.
Volatility refers to the degree of variation or fluctuation in the price or value of a financial asset, such as stocks, bonds, or cryptocurrencies, over a period of time. Higher volatility indicates that an asset's price is experiencing more significant and rapid price swings, while lower volatility suggests relatively stable and gradual price movements.
Trading involves the act of buying and selling financial assets like stocks, currencies, or commodities with the intention of profiting from market price fluctuations. Traders employ various strategies, analysis techniques, and risk management practices to make informed decisions and optimize their chances of success in the financial markets.
Index in trading is the measure of the performance of a group of stocks, which can include the assets and securities in it.
An investor is an individual, who invests money in an asset with the expectation that its value would appreciate in the future. The asset can be anything, including a bond, debenture, mutual fund, equity, gold, silver, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real-estate property.
Vuk stands at the forefront of financial journalism, blending over six years of crypto investing experience with profound insights gained from navigating two bull/bear cycles. A dedicated content writer, Vuk has contributed to a myriad of publications and projects. His journey from an English language graduate to a sought-after voice in finance reflects his passion for demystifying complex financial concepts, making him a helpful guide for both newcomers and seasoned investors.
Dr. BJ Johnson is a PhD in English Language and an editor with over 15 years of experience. He earned his degree in English Language in the U.S and the UK. In 2020, Dr. Johnson joined the Traders Union team. Since then, he has created over 100 exclusive articles and edited over 300 articles of other authors.
Mirjan Hipolito is a journalist and news editor at Traders Union. She is an expert crypto writer with five years of experience in the financial markets. Her specialties are daily market news, price predictions, and Initial Coin Offerings (ICO).
