​There was no one who wishes to buy EUR on its week maximum (Weekly Review)

2018-07-31
Following up to negative remarks of the President of the United States Mr. Donald Trump against the growing dollar, the pressure on it was maintained during the last week. Prior to the meeting of the European central Bank, EUR in pair with USD was trying to develop ascending dynamics, but failed to yield any tangible results, even though Mr. Donald Trump and the head of the European Commission Mr. Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to hold off on the mutual introduction of additional import duties and to work towards the reduction of current duties.

On the relative progress of negotiations between the United States and European Union, EUR/USD pair persevered on its attempts to break the resistance around 1.1740, but in the absence of specificity regarding the further development of scenario around the trade conflict between the United States and European Union, bulls lacked the enthusiasm to break this level. Moreover, the result of the ECB’s meeting together with the comments of its president Mr. Mario Draghi didn’t stimulate purchases of EUR, because the interest rate level remained unchanged, and comments by the head of the European Central Bank were not enough “hawkish” to empower bulls.

In the absence of stimulus to make purchases, speculators made a decision to perform sales, resulting in the fact that EUR/USD declined to the support close to 1.1620, around which the week’s closing took place. The British pound has also ended up the week declining against USD, and the reason for it is the “Brexit”. At the same time, against the background of stock indexes, USD remains under pressure of JPY, although the interest rate differential still in no way justifies sell outs of USD/JPY. In pairs with EUR and GBP the US dollar may be demanded, and in pair with JPY – remain under pressure.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, 30th of July
08:30 GMT – Great Britain. Number of approved mortgage requests;
09:00 GMT – Eurozone. Business environment indicator;
12:00 GMT – Germany. Harmonized consumer price index;
12:00 GMT – Germany. Consumer price index;
14:00 GMT – USA. Outstanding house sales transactions

Tuesday, 31st of July
22:45 GMT – New Zealand. Building permissions;
23:30 GMT – Japan. Industrial production;
23:30 GMT – Japan. Unemployment level;
23:30 GMT – Japan. Vacancies/applicants ratio;
01:00 GMT – China. Purchasing managers’ index in the service sector;
01:00 GMT – China. NBS purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
01:00 GMT – Australia. New house sales;
01:30 GMT – Australia. Building permissions;
02:00 GMT – Japan. Interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan;
02:00 GMT - Japan. Press-conference and comments on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan;
02:00 GMT – Japan. Press-conference of the Bank of Japan;

06:00 GMT – Germany. Retail sales;
08:00 GMT – Germany. Unemployment level;
08:00 GMT – Germany. Change in number of unemployed persons;
09:00 GMT – Eurozone. Unemployment level;
09:00 GMT – Eurozone. Core consumer price index;
09:00 GMT – Eurozone. Gross domestic product;

12:30 GMT – Canada. Gross domestic product;
12:30 GMT – USA. Individual consumption expenditures;
12:30 GMT – USA. Individual income/expenditure;
14:00 GMT – USA. S&P/CaseShiller house price index (YoY) (May);
14:45 GMT – USA. PMI Chicago index

Wednesday, 1st of August
22:30 GMT – Australia. AiG purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
22:45 GMT – New Zealand. Unemployment level;
22:45 GMT – New Zealand. Employment rate change (second quarter);
01:45 GMT – China. 2nd PMI Caixin manufacturing index;
07:55 GMT – Germany. Markit purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
08:00 GMT – Eurozone. Markit purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
08:30 GMT – Great Britain. Markit purchasing mangers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
12:15 GMT – USA. ADP report on employment level in the private sector;
13:30 GMT – Canada. PMI purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
14:00 GMT – USA. ISM price paid index;
18:00 GMT – USA. Interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve System;
18:00 GMT - USA. Comments on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System;
19:00 GMT – USA. Asset purchase rate of the US Federal Reserve System


Thursday, 2nd of August
23:50 GMT – Japan. Investments in foreign bonds;
23:50 GMT – Japan. Foreign investments in the Japanese stocks;
01:30 GMT – Australia. Trade balance;
01:30 GMT – Australia. Export/import;
08:30 GMT – Great Britain. Purchasing managers’ index in the construction sector;
11:00 GMT – Great Britain. Interest rate decision of the Bank of England;
11:00 GMT – Great Britain. Minutes of meeting of the Bank of England;

11:00 GMT – Great Britain. Quarterly inflation report of the Bank of England;
11:30 GMT – Great Britain. Speech by the head of the Bank of England Mr. Mark Carney;
12:30 GMT – USA. Number of rebids for unemployment compensation;
14:00 GMT – USA. Manufacturing orders

Friday, 3rd of August
23:50 GMT – Japan. Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England;
01:30 GMT – Australia. Retail sales;
01:45 GMT – China. PMI Caixin index in the service sector;
07:55 GMT – Germany. Markit composite purchasing managers’ index;
08:00 GMT – Eurozone. Markit composite purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing sector;
09:00 GMT – Eurozone. Retail sales;
12:30 GMT – Canada. International merchandise trade statistics;
12:30 GMT – USA. Trade balance;
12:30 GMT – USA. Unemployment level;
12:30 GMT – USA. Number of new job opportunities created outside of the agricultural sector;
12:30 GMT – USA. Average hourly earnings;

14:00 GMT – USA. ISM purchasing managers’ index in the service sector

Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst

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