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Thread: Market Overview by FXCC

  1. #1
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    Market Overview by FXCC

    Market Overview by FXCC Aug 27 2012

    Fed’s Jackson Hole conference key event this week - BNZ

    The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, due on Friday, is the event of the week. According to Mike Jones, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand, "some of the market impact of Bernanke’s speech has been nullified by last week’s dovish Fed minutes." The analyst adds: "The speech is expected to be used to map out the policy (easing) options facing the Fed. If this has the effect of hardening Fed easing expectations then the USD should continue to suffer."

    London session ahead will be a quiet one in regards of London closing for holidays and lack of macro economic data EUR related but German Ifo business climate at 08:00 GMT as the most important, preceded by German import price index at 06:00 GMT, and Chicago Fed Evans speaking at 10:00 GMT. In the euro zone sovereign debt auctions front, France and Germany will sell short term treasury bills.


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-08-27 06:00 GMT | Japan. Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Jul)
    2012-08-27 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Aug)
    2012-08-27 14:30 GMT | United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug)
    2012-08-27 16:15 GMT | United States. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-08-27 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.58, outlook bearish – V.Bednarik
    2012-08-27 04:21 GMT | EUR/NZD set to push above 55-day EMA?
    2012-08-27 03:20 GMT | EUR reaches smallest net short position since May - Nomura
    2012-08-27 01:41 GMT | AUD/USD falls sharply; Only China fix catalyst?


    EURUSD : 1.25073 / 1.25078
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2635 | 1.2594 | 1.2547
    1.2482 | 1.2446 | 1.2406

    SUMMARY : Up trend
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    On Friday EURUSD formed correction and reached our target at 1.2490. Today we expect quiet day ahead however technically important targets might be achieved lat. Upside direction is limited by the next resistance level at 1.2547 (R1), brake here would enable higher targets at important technical level 1.2594 (R2). Momentum on the upside direction might expose last target at 1.2635 (R3) in potential. Loss of the next support level at 1.2482 (S1) would put in focus next target at 1.2446 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.2406 (S3).

    --------------
    GBPUSD : 1.58074 / 1.58085
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5911 | 1.5873 | 1.5838
    1.5796 | 1.5766 | 1.5733

    SUMMARY : Up trend
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    GBPUSD did not show the essential momentum on Friday and remained to be traded is sideways mode however our target at 1.5805 was achieved. Fresh low at 1.5796 (S1) is the next support level. Market penetration below it might encourage execution of the short trades and drive market price towards to the next target at 1.5766 (S2). Potential is seen to reach last support level at 1.5733 (S3) in perspective. For the long positions it is preferably to wait the 1.5838 (R1) brake out. We suggest next targets at 1.5873 (R2) and 1.5911 (R3) in potential.

    -----------------
    USDJPY : 78.756 / 78.762
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    79.37 | 79.14 | 78.93
    78.62 | 78.45 | 78.28

    SUMMARY : Sideway
    TREND : Down trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    USDJPY broke our resistance level at 78.73 today and now moving towards to our next target at 78.93 (R1). Brake here would enable higher target at 79.14 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 79.37 (R3). The downtrend resuming is possible from these levels. On the other hand if price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.93 (R1), we expect the price to retest our support at 78.62 (S1), brake below that level would suggest next targets at 78.45 (S2) and 78.28 (S3) where can be found the final support of the day.


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

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    Market Overview by FXCC Aug 28 2012

    Fed to deliver further stimulus - JPM

    JPM is quite dovish on the next Fed policy tools to deploy, expecting Ben Bernanke & Co. to provide additional stimulus to the economy by extending the rate-on-hold guidance out to mid-2015 and increasing asset purchases. The bank expects medium-term US paper getting a better bid tone ahead of the Sept 12-13 FOMC meeting. A more marked move will come via real yields as investors bet on higher inflation, says JPM head bond strategist Terry Belton.

    For the London session ahead the economic agenda will be soft once again in EUR macro data related terms, with Germany GFK consumer sentiment at 06:00 GMT, followed by Spanish final GDP 1 hour later, and EU M3 money supply at 08:00 GMT. At 11:00 GMT is expected EU's Van Rompuy will meet Spanish PM Rajoy, which could bring some headlines to the table giving some volatility to current thin markets, coupled with both Spanish and Italian short term sovereign debt auctions to be held today, Spain to sell up to €3.5B in 3 and 6 month bills. Spanish 10y bond yields hold near mid 6%s with risk premium with Germany around the 500bps.


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-08-28 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Sep)
    2012-08-28 06:00 GMT | Switzerland. UBS Consumption Indicator (Jul)
    2012-08-28 08:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. M3 Money Supply (3m) (Jul)
    2012-08-28 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-08-28 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD maintains bearish profile
    2012-08-28 03:51 GMT | EUR/USD in holding pattern ahead of risk events - OCBC
    2012-08-28 02:53 GMT | AUD/USD continues to grind lower
    2012-08-28 01:28 GMT | Risk off swings boost USD, JPY


    EURUSD : 1.24836 / 1.24841
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2594 | 1.2547 | 1.2508
    1.2446 | 1.2406 | 1.2369

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Market remains in uptrend after some consolidation provided yesterday. Instrument dropped below the suggested support level at 1.2482 and now is moving towards to our target at 1.2446 (S1). Brake here is required for further correction development towards to next target at 1.2406 (S2). Last support level locates today at 1.2369 (S3). Failure to go lower would put in focus next resistance at 1.2508 (R1), brake here is required to enable next targets at 1.2547 (R2) and 1.2594 (R3), important technical level.

    ---------------
    GBPUSD : 1.57882 / 1.57893
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5892 | 1.5861 | 1.5827
    1.5753 | 1.5717 | 1.5681

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The market is intended to go lower in medium term perspective. Yesterday instrument dropped below the expected support level at 1.5796 and finally reached our target at 1.5766 today. Technically, next support level locates at today fresh low 1.5753 (S1), pushdown of the price is possible below this level. We suggest next targets at 1.5717 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3). Failure to go lower suggested support level might put in focus our next resistance level at 1.5827 (R1), brake here would suggest new targets at 1.5861 (R2) and 1.5892 (R3).

    ---------------
    USDJPY : 78.509 / 78.514
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    79.21 | 79.02 | 78.83
    78.45 | 78.28 | 78.11

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Oversold


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    USDJPY depreciated today below the expected support level at 78.62 and almost reach our next target at 78.45 (S1). We expect further easing towards to our targets later on today however there is no clear tendency on the market now. Possible execution of protective orders below the support level at 78.45 (S1) might drive market price toward to our lower targets at 78.28 (S2) and 78.11 (S3). On the other hand, if market go higher and continue to be traded in sideways we suggest waiting for a clear brake of the next resistance level at 78.83 (R1). Next expected target at 79.02 (R2).

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( Forex Trading Course | Forex Trading Blog | ECN Forex Trading Training | FXCC )

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    Market Overview by FXCC Aug 29 2012

    ECB has no choice but buy periphery gvrt debt - Nomura

    ECB purchases of periphery debt would be effective in ending a dysfunctional government bond marke, says Nomura economist Richard Koo. "While longer-term answers to this eurozone-specific problem include fiscal stimulus to tackle the balance sheet recession itself and a rule that addresses the issue of capital flight by restraining, given that both of those measures will probably take years to implement, the only short-term option is to have the ECB buy the government debt of peripheral countries" the economist said in a research note.

    London session ahead will be another quiet one in terms of EUR macro data related coming out, with only French business confidence at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italian consumer confidence and retail sales at 08:00 GMT, and German CPI at 12:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Italy will sell 6-month bills, with 10 year bond yields on the rise at 5.82% last, coming from multi-week lows Aug 22 at 5.56% for Italy. There will also be some meetings among different EU leaders going on which could actually produce some headlines.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-08-29 07:00 GMT Switzerland. KOF Leading Indicator (Aug)
    2012-08-29 12:00 GMT Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug). Preliminar
    2012-08-29 12:30 GMT United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
    2012-08-29 18:00 GMT United States. Fed's Beige Book


    2012-08-29 04:32 GMT GBP/USD holds bullish stance – V.Bednarik
    2012-08-29 04:11 GMT GBP/JPY: Hikkake prints at key support
    2012-08-29 03:42 GMT EUR/USD, watch resistance at 1.2600
    2012-08-29 02:02 GMT USD on demand in Asia

    ---------------------
    EURUSD : 1.25567 / 1.25571
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2633 | 1.2604 | 1.2576
    1.2543 | 1.2513 | 1.2481

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The “Bullish” sentiment took up the EURUSD. Instrument reached our target at 1.2547. Potential of going higher is seen today above the next resistance at 1.2576 (R1), surpassing of this level would suggest higher targets at 1.2604 (R2) and 1.2633 (R3). If it fail to go higher, we might see retracement development below the next support level at 1.2543 (S1) towards to next target at 1.2513 (S2). Brake here is required to enable last support level at 1.2481 (S3).

    ------------------
    GBPUSD : 1.58147 / 1.58155
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5913 | 1.5887 | 1.5838
    1.5797 | 1.5772 | 1.5747

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    GBPUSD currently is under the “Bullish” pressure and moving towards to our suggested yesterday target at 1.5838 (R1), our next resistance level. Brake here would suggest new target at 1.5887 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5913 (R3) intraday. Next support level stay at 1.5797 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested targets at 1.5772 (S2) and 1.5747 (S3) in potential.

    -------------
    USDJPY : 78.580 / 78.584
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    79.02 | 78.83 | 78.65
    78.45 | 78.28 | 78.11

    SUMMARY : Sideway
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technically instrument remain trading in a range mode. A break above the first resistance level at 78.65 (R1) would suggest a target at 78.83 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 79.02 (R3) in perspective. All our support levels remain the same as yesterday. Key support level holds at 78.45 (S1). If the pair manage to brake here, we expect next target 78.28 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to 78.11 (S3).


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( Forex Trading Hours | Forex Trading Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Tutorial | FXCC )

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    Market Overview by FXCC Aug 31 2012

    ECB bond buying plan unlikely to be fully unveiled at the Sep ECB meeting - TDS

    With summer drawing to a close, "it's time to see if the monetary weapons will be revealed", says Rich Kelly, research analyst at TDS. "Disappointment at some stage along the way is a real possibility and we eventually expect the ECB’s new bond buying plan to satisfy the market, but it is unlikely to be fully unveiled at the September ECB meeting, and once announced, there will be a lag before Spain asks for it, and markets hate waiting and uncertainty" the analyst notes.

    In the sessions ahead, the UK’s non-seasonally adjusted Nationwide Housing Prices data for August will be key risk event for GBP, but the market is likely to be distracted as it awaits Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-08-31 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Unemployment Rate (Jul)
    2012-08-31 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
    2012-08-31 14:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole
    2012-08-31 18:30 GMT | All. IMF's Lagarde Speaks at Jackson Hole

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-08-31 03:45 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 6-day lows, still in range
    2012-08-31 03:01 GMT | NZD/USD finding resistance below 0.80
    2012-08-31 02:11 GMT | GBP/JPY sideways around 124.00
    2012-08-31 02:46 GMT | EUR/AUD within quiet, narrow range


    EURUSD : 1.25109 / 1.25114
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2577 | 1.2550 | 1.2523
    1.2481 | 1.2451 | 1.2417

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Today major market drivers would be Fed's Bernanke Speech at 14:00 GMT and IMF's Lagarde Speech at 18:30 GMT at Jackson Hole. However some macroeconomic data would be released during the European trading session, in focus E.M.U. Unemployment Rate at 09:00 GMT and Germany Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.2523 (R1) potentially might expose higher targets at 1.2550 (R2) and 1.2577 (R3) later on today. Bearish penetration below the suggested yesterday support at 1.2513 targeting 1.2481 (S1) and 1.2451(S2) in potential. Final support level for today locates at 1.2417 (S3).

    -----------------
    GBPUSD : 1.57932 / 1.57941
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5859 | 1.5830 | 1.5800
    1.5770 | 1.5741 | 1.5712

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Yesterday Instrument made an attempt to establish positive bias but failed to go much higher our suggested resistance level at 1.5838. During the US Session pair recovered all gains and met our downside direction target at 1.5772. Fresh low, formed yesterday is our next support level at 1.5770 (S1), brake here might shift market sentiment to the “Bearish” side. In such scenario we expect further decline towards to next targets at 1.5741 (S2) and 1.5712 (S3). Risk of GBPUSD strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5800 (R1). Progress above it might expose targets at 1.5830 (R2) and 1.5859 (R3) in potential.

    ----------------
    USDJPY : 78.435 / 78.440
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.91 | 78.85 | 78.57
    78.28 | 78.10 | 77.92

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Oversold


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Market remains in sideways mode trading however potential volatility increase due to the Jackson Hole Symposium might assist to the trend development on the market. Signal of market sentiment change to the bearish would be provided if market drop below the next support level at 78.28 (S1). Suggested targets locates at 78.10 (S2) and 77.92 (S3). On the other side, brake above the resistance at 78.57 (R1) might lead to the bullish scenario and expose targets at 78.85 (R2) and 78.91 (R3).

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Basics | ECN Forex Trading Education | Best Forex Trading Platform | FXCC )

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    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 03 2012

    ECB to add some colour on bond buying - Nomura

    Expect the ECB to announce its preparedness to intervene in the bond market after countries have called for help at the EFSF/ESM and under strict conditionality, Nomura Chief European Economist Jacques Cailloux said in a research note, published late last week. However, Nomura believes that the ECB will provide very little colour on the modalities of the programme at this week's meeting. According to Mr. Cailloux, once the program is implemented, "analysis shows that the bond buying programme for Spain could last 5 months with the shorter maturities rallying further in the initial stage of the policy response. Much more difficult will be how to anchor the longer end which will be the job of the EFSF/ESM, a task we believe will be very hard."

    London session ahead will have another round of PMI figures this time coming from several EU countries like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, and Greece, starting at 07:13 GMT, 07:43, 07:48, 07:53, and finally at 07:58 with the EU and Greece respectively. Not much in EUR macro data related apart from the PMIs, with the focus on the US closed today on holiday, and ECB's Draghi to testify on banking union before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels at 13:30 GMT.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-03 07:15 GMT : Switzerland. Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
    2012-09-03 07:53 GMT : Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-03 07:58 GMT : E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-03 08:28 GMT : United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-03 04:33 GMT : GBP/USD consolidating above 1.5850
    2012-09-03 04:12 GMT : EUR/USD flat, AUD/USD plummets
    2012-09-03 03:52 GMT : AUD/USD forecast at parity before end of 2012 - UBS
    2012-09-03 03:16 GMT : EUR/AUD at fresh 2-month highs

    ---------------
    EURUSD : 1.25825 / 1.25826
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2717 | 1.2676 | 1.2637
    1.2557 | 1.2517 | 1.2480

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Friday’s comments by ECB’s Benoit Coeure pushed EURUSD up to the new monthly highs and our suggested target at 1.2577 was achieved. Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high at 1.2637 (R1), violation here would expose next target at 1.2676 (R2) and any further appreciation might face resistive measures located at 1.2717 (R3). On the other side, the pair’s fall might be supported by our next level at 1.2557 (S1). Further decline below it might test next targets at 1.2517 (S2) and 1.2480 (S3) in potential.

    ---------------
    GBPUSD : 1.58698 / 1.58710
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5948 | 1.5922 | 1.5896
    1.5848 | 1.5824 | 1.5799

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Friday’s USD weakening during the European session let to profit taking at 1.5589, our last suggested target. Upside pressure might force the market to retest our next resistance level at 1.5896 (R1). Consolidation above it might provide sufficient space for the price increase towards to our next targets at 1.5922 (R2) and 1.5948 (R3). On the flip side, depreciation below the support level at 1.5848 (S1) would enable our targets at 1.5824 (S2) and 1.5799 (S3) in potential.

    --------------
    USDJPY : 78.319 / 78.323
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.80 | 78.63 | 78.45
    78.10 | 77.92 | 77.74

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Current installation might suggest us about the market sentiment change. Friday decline below the key support level at 78.28 open the road towards to the new targets. Our next target level at 78.10 (S1) mark is not far away from current market price. Brake here would suggest lower supports at 77.92 (S2) and 77.74 (S3) as new targets. A move above the resistance level at 78.45 (R1) might drive price towards to the next target at 78.63 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 78.80 (R3), important technical level.

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading System | Forex Trading Platforms | Automated Forex Trading Software | FXCC )

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    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 04 2012

    RBA Interest Rate Decision remains at 3.5%

    The Australian central bank believes that despite the overall global worsening conditions in recent months, monetary policy is appropriate given inflation levels consistent with the objectives set, as well as economic growth in line with expectations. Widely anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg where 24 out of the 24 economists questioned expected the decision to remain unchanged, in the absence of dovish signs the pair is pushing higher.

    Australia current account balance has come at -11,801M in 2Q vs -14,892M in 1Q. Expectations were for -12.2 bln approximately. The contribution from Aus net exports rose to 0.3%, below a 0.55% forecasted.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-04 09:00 GMT | E. M. U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
    2012-09-04 12:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-04 14:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-04 23:30 GMT | Australia. AiG Performance of Services Index (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-04 02:29 GMT | EUR/USD to fresh session highs on USD weakness overall
    2012-09-04 01:33 GMT | Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) -1.2% in Jul
    2012-09-04 01:17 GMT | Hard to see gold breaking 1700/oz before NFP - ANZ
    2012-09-04 00:05 GMT | USD/JPY more range trading above 78.00

    --------------
    EURUSD : 1.26120 / 1.26127
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2717 | 1.2676 | 1.2637
    1.2594 | 1.2557 | 1.2517

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    EURUSD failed to establish any significant movement as the pair has remained in sideways mode trading yesterday. At the moment pair is gaining 0.18% and next resistance level ahead is seen at 1.2637 (R1). Penetration above it might resume market strengthening towards to the next target at 1.2676 (R2). Remaining resistance level locates at 1.2717 (R3). On the flip side, support levels lie at 1.2594 (S1) ahead. Brake here is required to enable next targets at 1.2557 (S2) and 1.2517 (S3). Next important news from E. M. U. is Producer Price Index at 09:00 GMT.

    ---------------
    GBPUSD : 1.58865 / 1.58876
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5948 | 1.5922 | 1.5896
    1.5873 | 1.5848 | 1.5824

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technically, GBPUSD is under the bullish pressure on the medium term and we expect further appreciation later on today as main scenario. GBPUSD reached our suggested resistance level at 1.5896 (R1) and now is moving towards to our next target at 1.5922 (R2). Progress above it would suggest final target for today at 1.5948 (R3). On the other hand, retracement is possible and market decline below the next support level at 1.5873 (S1) would bring in focus lower targets at 1.5848 (S2) and 1.5824 (S3) in potential.

    --------------
    USDJPY : 78.368 / 78.373
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.80 | 78.63 | 78.45
    78.17 | 77.98 | 77.80

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    USDJPY continue its range trading and picture in general remain the same. In terms of technical levels, next resistance is seen at 78.45 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we could even see to retest of our next target at 78.63 (R2) later on. Our final resistance could be found at 78.80 (R3) price level. While next support is placed at 78.17 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 77.98 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 77.80 (S3) intraday.

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Account | ECN Forex Trading Courses | Forex Currency Trading System | FXCC )

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    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 05 2012

    Spain full-blown bailout done deal - Nomura

    Spain will need full-blown bailout which will include more active role of ECB in Spanish bond markets, says Nomura in a research note. The bank thinks capital flight from Spain is in a "category of its own," with massive outflows raising “serious concerns about the implications for banking sector stability and economic growth,” Nomura strategists Jens Nordvig and Charles St.-Arnaud write in client note. Interestingly, the following line via Bloomberg points at capital outflows on 3-month rolling basis at 50% of GDP vs Italy 15%; for comparison, Indonesia outflow during Asian crisis peaked at 23%.

    The London session ahead will bring just few minor PMI figures from the EU in terms of EUR macro data related and EU retail sales. Spanish services PMI will be out at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italian services PMI, 5 minutes later by French one, another 5 minutes for German one, and finally another 5 minutes for the EU final services PMI at 07:58 GMT. EU retail sales are due at 09:00 GMT. At 13:00 GMT EU's Van Rompuy is expected to meet French PM Hollande so very probably some headlines will come that way.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-05 07:58 GMT | E. M.U. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-05 08:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
    2012-09-05 09:00 GMT | E. M.U Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
    2012-09-05 13:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-05 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD in tight range above 1.5850
    2012-09-05 02:26 GMT | AUD/CAD: quick dip below 1.0050
    2012-09-05 00:12 GMT | EUR/USD holds negative tone at Tokyo fix
    2012-09-04 23:23 GMT | BoC, modest withdrawal of stimulus likely - Nomura

    ----------
    EURUSD : 1.25340 / 1.25345
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2637 | 1.2598 | 1.2557
    1.2517 | 1.2476 | 1.2432

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    EURUSD broke our expected support level at 1.2594 and reached our target at 1.2557 yesterday. Intraday term bias remains negative below the next resistance at 1.2557 (R1). However, brake here would suggest about the market sentiment change to the bullish and we expect appreciation towards to 1.2598 (R2) and 1.2637 (R3) in such scenario. Risk of further easing is seen below the support at 1.2517 (S1), decline below it might expose next targets at 1.2476 (S2) and 1.2432 (S3) in potential. Today in focus are E.M.U. Markit Services PMI at 07:58 GMT and Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT.

    -------------------
    GBPUSD : 1.58620 / 1.58629
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5922 | 1.5899 | 1.5875
    1.5855 | 1.5830 | 1.5804

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The pair has formed fresh low today at 1.5855 (S1), which is currently our next support level. Fall below it would suggest next targets at 1.5830 (S2) and 1.5804 (S3). Though, intraday Bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.5875 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.5899 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting 1.5922 (R3). Attention on the United Kingdom Markit Services PMI release at 08:28 GMT today.

    ---------------
    USDJPY : 78.413 / 78.417
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.92 | 78.73 | 78.54
    78.17 | 77.98 | 77.80

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Oversold


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    USDJPY appreciated yesterday and formed fresh high at 78.54 (R1), which is currently our next resistance level. Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.73 (R2). Brake here is required to enable last target for today at 78.92 (R3). Market decrease below the next important support level at 78.17 (S1) would suggest about the downtrend development with next target at 77.98 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.80 (S3).

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

  8. #8
    Banned
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    160
    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 06 2012

    EUR/USD steady above 1.26 ahead of one of most important days for the currency

    The key risk event probably of the entire month in the form of ECB interest rate statement today at 11:45 GMT followed by the press conference 45 minutes later, where is expected the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker will attend the meeting. As reported by Laurence Norman and Todd Buell for WSJ: “In an unusual move, Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, announced he would attend Thursday's ECB governing council meeting. 'Mr. Juncker will present the Eurogroup's analysis of the economic and financial situation in the euro zone,' his spokesman said in an e-mail,” reads the report.

    London session ahead will be as busy as it can get, with plenty of risk events going on. For EUR macro related data, France will start with the unemployment figures at 05:30 GMT, followed by the Netherland's CPI a 07:30 GMT, EU's revised 2Q GDP at 09:00 GMT along with Greece unemployment numbers, and Germany factory orders at 10:00 GMT.


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-06 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q2) Preliminar
    2012-09-06 11:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
    2012-09-06 11:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision
    2012-09-06 12:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-06 04:33 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.5900
    2012-09-06 03:22 GMT | AUD/JPY bounces from 6-week lows
    2012-09-06 03:04 GMT | EUR/CHF keeps moving higher
    2012-09-06 01:44 GMT | AUD/USD finds double bottom; aiming at 1.0220

    --------------
    EURUSD : 1.26056 / 1.26061
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2754 | 1.2697 | 1.2637
    1.2570 | 1.2510 | 1.2450

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Yesterday, leaked details of the ECB’s bond intervention plan pushed EUR higher and our target at 1.2598 was met successfully. However our last target at 1.2637 (R1) remains untouched and currently is our next key resistance level. Market is waiting for official announcement from the ECB at 11:45 GMT and we expect volatility increase today. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2637 (R1) would enable next targets at 1.2697 (R2) and 1.2754 (R3). For the downside we suggest next support level at 1.2570 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual supports, located at 1.2510 (S2) and 1.2450 (S3) in potential.

    -----------------
    GBPUSD 1.59019 / 1.59028
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.5996 | 1.5968 | 1.5934
    1.5884 | 1.5850 | 1.5815

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The key event for GBPUSD would be BoE Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT today. Next important technical resistance stay at 1.5934 (R1), brake here is required for market expansion towards to next target at 1.5968 (R2) and any further increase would then be limited by final resistance for today at 1.5996 (R3). Failure to go higher might push markets to retest our support at 1.5884 (S1). Brake here would suggest next target at 1.5850 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting to support at 1.5815 (S3). E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product Preliminar release is the next portion of data in focus at 09:00 GMT .

    ---------------
    USDJPY : 78.436 / 78.442
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.92 | 78.73 | 78.54
    78.30 | 78.10 | 77.89

    SUMMARY : Sideway
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The neutral channel continues to pressure the pair from the both sides. Yesterday high at 78.54 (R1) and formed low at 78.30 (S1) currently is the next key levels. Break above the resistance at 78.54 (R1) would bring in focus next target at 78.73 (R2) and any further appreciation might face final resistance at 78.92 (R3). As long as the pair remains within the same price range, support at 78.30 (S1) is acting a protective level for the pair to plunge lower. Brake here would suggest next targets at 78.10 (S2) and 77.89 (S3) in potential.

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Global Forex Trading | Forex Trading Charts | Best Forex Trading | FXCC )

  9. #9
    Banned
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    160
    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 07 2012

    Market positioning for a stronger NFP reading - Westpac

    Market positioning for US Aug non-farm payrolls is likely to be for a stronger reading than economists’ consensus of 130K, given the better ADP survey and also the non-manufacturing ISM, says Sean Callow, currency strategist at Westpac. The bank forecast is gloomier, "looking for 80K after the surprisingly firm 163K in July. The market range is 70-185K."

    London session ahead will be focused on key data coming from the US at 12:30 GMT in the form of NFP. But earlier will come a bunch of other minor EUR related data, starting with German current account and trade balance at 06:00 GMT (all times GMT), followed by French trade balance 45 minutes later, Spanish industrial production at 07:00, the Netherlands industrial production half hour later, Greece final 2Q GDP at 09:00, and German industrial production and Portugal final 2Q GDP both at 10:00.


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-07 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul)
    2012-09-07 12:00 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
    2012-09-07 12:30 GMT | Canada. Net Change in Employment (Aug)
    2012-09-07 14:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-07 04:40 GMT | EUR/USD ahead of US NFP above 1.26 around 5 year volatility lows
    2012-09-07 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD upside favored – V.Bednarik
    2012-09-07 03:35 GMT | AUD/USD at day highs; stops at 1.03 tripped
    2012-09-07 03:19 GMT | Fitch warns Japan rating in danger to be downgraded


    EURUSD : 1.26371 / 1.26376
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2741 | 1.2697 | 1.2654
    1.2610 | 1.2566 | 1.2524

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    United States Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:00 GMT in focus today as major marked driver. Economist’s consensus is 130K. Hourly, instrument looks overbought and we expect some gradual easing below the next support level at 1.2610 (S1) later on today. Our suggested targets are 1.2566 (S2) and 1.2524 (S3). While next resistances is seen at 1.2654 (R1), clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our next targets at 1.2697 (R2) and 1.2741 (R3) later on today.

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD : 1.59330 / 1.59340
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.6003 | 1.5975 | 1.5943
    1.5917 | 1.5889 | 1.5860

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    GBPUSD bounced on the Mario Draghi’s commentary yesterday. Next portion of macroeconomic data release from UK is expected today at 08:30 GMT - Manufacturing Production. Our main scenario remains unchanged, GBPUSD at the moment deviate from its up-trend on the short term timeframe. Next resistance is maintained at 1.5943 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.5975 (R2) and 1.6003 (R3) in potential. However on the medium term, market is overbought and correction is possible from current levels. Decrease below the support at 1.5917 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.5889 (S2) and 1.5860 (S3).

    ------------------
    USDJPY : 78.927 / 78.930
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    79.42 | 79.22 | 79.03
    78.77 | 78.58 | 78.38

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Upward penetration
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    The USD rose yesterday versus the JPY, turning hourly sentiment to the positive territory and exposed our final target at 78.92. Next resistance ahead at is placed at yesterday high- 79.03 (R1), brake here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to 79.22 (R2) and 79.42 (R3). On the downturn, price decline below the next support levels at 78.77 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.58 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.38 (S3).

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Automatic forex trading | Learning Forex Trading | ECN Forex Trading Signal | FXCC )

  10. #10
    Banned
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
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    Market Overview by FXCC Sep 10 2012

    If QE3 happens, may mark the end of USD weakness - Standard Chartered

    Following the downbeat US NFP data, which for the majority of market participants paves the way for the next round of easing by the Fed being announced as soon as this week, there is other entities, like Standard Chartered, which remain more skeptical on getting too excited on this prospects. According to analysts in the bank, "we do not think US August payroll data means QE3 is a done deal in September." The bank also adds, "if QE3 happens, it actually may mark the end, not the beginning, of USD weakness." Standard Chartered remains underweight EUR, "supported by the view this week’s FOMC will disappoint" the bank notes.

    London session ahead will be a middle soft one in regards of EUR macro data related, though could become into a volatile day anyways with the Troika heading to Greece, and PM Samaras expected to meet ECB tomorrow. First will come French business sentiment at 06:30 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by French industrial production, EU Sentix indicator at 08:30 GMT, and Greek CPI. In the EZ sovereign debt auctions front Germany will sell up to € 4B in 6 month bills at 06:00 GMT, with risk premium to Spanish bonds narrowing last at 413bps, at multi-week lows.

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-09-10 06:00 GMT | Japan. Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Aug)
    2012-09-10 08:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep)
    2012-09-10 19:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change (Jul)
    2012-09-10 22:45 GMT | New Zealand. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-09-10 04:47 GMT | GBP/USD: upside remains favored – V.Bednarik
    2012-09-10 04:23 GMT | EUR/USD stable below 1.2800
    2012-09-10 02:04 GMT | USD/JPY holds scope for more slides – V.Bednarik
    2012-09-10 00:43 GMT | AUD/USD range bound above 1.0350


    EURUSD : 1.27833 / 1.27839
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.2920 | 1.2870 | 1.2817
    1.2754 | 1.2700 | 1.2652

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    After the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change release on Friday, EURUSD climbed above the suggested target at 1.2741 and closed US session on the positive tone. Next resistance level for today locates at Friday’s High - 1.2817 (R1). Rise above it might lead to the further trend development with next possible targets at 1.2870 (R2) and 1.2920 (R3). Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.2754 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next support at 1.2700 (S2), decrease below it would suggest support at 1.2652 (S3) as final target for today.

    ------------------
    GBPUSD : 1.59938 / 1.59945
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    1.6103 | 1.6069 | 1.6034
    1.5976 | 1.5942 | 1.5909

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Up trend
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bullish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    GBPUSD met our target at 1.6003 on the Friday move and settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe. Next resistance ahead, preventing further appreciation, is seen at 1.6034 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6069 (R2) and 1.6103 (R3) in potential. On the other point, if the market manage to brake next support level at 1.5976 (S1), we might see pull back development with possible targets at 1.5942 (S2) and 1.5909 (S3) later on today.

    ------------------
    USDJPY : 78.224 / 78.228
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



    78.74 | 78.54 | 78.36
    78.01 | 77.81 | 77.62

    SUMMARY : Down
    TREND : Downward penetration
    MA10 : Bullish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Pair formed fresh low on Friday’s move and now deviate from its initial downtrend formation. Next resistance level lie at 78.36 (R1), clearance here might provide space for pair strengthening towards to next expected target at 78.54 (R2). Brake here is required to enable final target at 78.74 (R3). Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.01 (S1). Price progress below it might expose targets at 77.81 (S2) and 77.62 (S3) in perspective.

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading For Beginners | Automated Forex Trading Systems | Forex Automated Trading | FXCC )

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