+1.28% for US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel as forex reserves in Israel increase by ₪2.953B

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US Dollar vs Shekel jumps 1.28% today

Highlights

The Bank of Israel's $801 million foreign exchange intervention in May drove a 4.6% shekel depreciation against the US dollar.
Israel's foreign currency reserves rose nearly $3 billion by May month-end, reflecting a strong commitment to managing currency volatility.
USD/ILS trades with strong short-term bullish momentum, with 2.9446–3.0140 as the expected range and a breakout above resistance likely.

Central bank intervention boosts dollar demand amid shekel volatility

The Bank of Israel's decisive action in the foreign exchange market, purchasing $801 million in May as reported by ynetnews.com, is providing a direct boost to US dollar demand against the shekel. This intervention followed the shekel's surge to a 33-year high versus the dollar, with central bank measures leading to a 4.6 percent devaluation in the local currency last week. The significant increase in Israel's foreign currency reserves, climbing by nearly $3 billion by the end of May, illustrates the scale of institutional readiness to manage further currency volatility and maintain orderly market functioning.

Bullish momentum confirmed as price nears key moving average ceiling

Technically, USD/ILS has crossed above the hourly MA-20 (₪2.9437) and MA-50 (₪2.9141) levels, but remains beneath the longer-term MA-200 at ₪3.1014. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪2.9349. Momentum signals, including MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator, are all confirming strong bullish pressure. The RSI stands at 71.92, firmly in buy territory, while the CCI is indicating overbought and Stoch RSI stays neutral, pointing to mixed oscillator readings. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) confirms buyers remain dominant in intraday action, though some oscillators warn of potential short-term consolidation after the recent surge.

Upside breakout odds rise as consolidation remains baseline scenario

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/ILS is expected to remain within a ₪2.9446 to ₪3.0140 band, which reflects the typical volatility observed around current levels. The probability of an upside breakout is very high (above 80%), whereas an immediate downside reversal is considered unlikely (below 20%). The baseline scenario anticipates a period of sideways consolidation, but a clear break above resistance at the upper boundary could trigger further gains, while a sustained drop through Kijun support would open the door to corrective downside price action.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that central bank action has fueled a sharp USD/ILS rebound. He sees bullish momentum confirmed by technicals, but stresses the pair is still below long-term resistance. Kharitonov remains cautious, as overbought signals suggest the risk of consolidation. "Until USD/ILS clears the ₪3.0140 resistance, I treat upside as corrective rather than a new trend."

Earlier, analysts noted that while short-term momentum in USD/ILS appeared constructive, broader technical signals pointed to caution and the likelihood of near-term consolidation. The Bank of Israel's direct intervention and the latest bullish breakout now provide a renewed catalyst, making a decisive move above the established resistance range a key signal for the next directional wave.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.