US halts Israel–Iran escalation, lowers safe-haven demand for Gold

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Gold rises 0.22% to $4,339.71 today

Highlights

The US-backed de-escalation between Israel and Iran has reduced war risk and cooled immediate gold safe-haven demand.
Continued illicit trade fueling sanctioned regimes and aggressive gold mine expansion in China are adding supply chain risks and regulatory pressures.
Gold is trading higher today within a $4,228.98 to $4,450.44 range, but conflicting momentum signals and overbought conditions point to a likely downside bias short term.

Ceasefire-driven calm balanced by supply threats and investor demand

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has contributed to stability in the gold market as traders closely monitor ongoing geopolitical risks and the potential for renewed conflict. The de-escalation, backed by United States mediation, has reduced immediate war risk and moderated gold's safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, illicit gold markets fueling sanctioned regimes and accelerated gold mine expansions in China—targeting 260 metric tons of production this year—are exposing the global gold supply chain to additional regulatory scrutiny and supply pressures. Amid this landscape, global investors have been increasing their allocations to gold in response to persistent currency volatility, fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks.

Diverging momentum and oscillator signals as resistance anchors upside

On the technical front, XAU/USD trades above its MA-20 but remains below the MA-50 on the H4 and the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,372.30, with support highlighted at $4,228.98. Momentum indicators are mixed: both MACD and ADX reflect a selling bias, while RSI and Stoch RSI point to further downside and overbought conditions, respectively, and BBP also signals overbought. The CCI suggests a tentative buy, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, signaling notable divergence among oscillators and momentum tools.

Sideways bias prevails unless key resistance or support breaks

Looking ahead to the next four trading days, the expected price range for gold is between $4,228.98 and $4,450.44—a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline expectation is for XAU/USD to fluctuate sideways within this corridor. If price decisively breaks above the $4,372.30 resistance, it could trigger a bullish move towards the upper end of the range. Conversely, a drop through near-term support at $4,228.98 may confirm renewed selling pressure and further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold stabilizing within a narrow range despite fragile geopolitical relief. He notes that technical momentum looks weak and sector fundamentals remain under regulatory pressure from illicit flows and rising Chinese supply. The analyst remains cautious as safe-haven demand has cooled, while mixed signals from oscillators caution against aggressive positions. "Until gold convincingly breaks above $4,372.30, I remain defensive and see little reason to chase upside here."

Previously it was reported that the redemption value of Sovereign Gold Bonds is directly determined by the prevailing gold market price, underscoring the asset's sensitivity to market fluctuations. With gold navigating a period of global supply pressures and mixed technical signals, traders should closely monitor price action around the $4,372.30 resistance for signs of a potential breakout or a reversal in the current range-bound trend.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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