MSTR stock price forecast: Watching $111.38–$132.56 range as MSTR trades lower

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Strategy falls 4.11% to $121.97 today

Highlights

Strategy Inc. acquired 1,550 Bitcoin for $101.3 million, lowering its average cost basis and boosting digital asset exposure.
The company funded purchases via $181 million in at-the-market stock sales, increasing liquidity and expanding its float while shifting dividend payments to a semi-monthly schedule.
Technicals indicate persistent selling pressure, with price forecasted to consolidate between $111.38 and $132.56 and a bearish bias prevailing short-term.

Share float expansion and Bitcoin acquisition as active balance shift

Strategy Inc. recently acquired 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101.3 million, reducing its average cost basis on holdings and modestly increasing its net exposure to digital assets. The purchase was funded through $181 million in proceeds from at-the-market sales of common stock, a move that raises liquidity while expanding share float. In addition, the company sold a small portion of its Bitcoin, totaling 32 BTC, to cover dividend obligations on STRC perpetual preferred stock, while shareholders separately approved a move to semi-monthly dividend payments, altering cash flow timing. These developments reflect active balance sheet management and capital raising, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum intensifies as price tests key technical supports

On the technical front, MSTR closed below the SMA-20 and SMA-50 on the hourly chart and is well under the long-term SMA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $123.19 marks immediate resistance, while today’s close came in at $121.97, with a gap down of $3.97 from the previous session and price action gravitating near the daily low. Momentum indicators are decisively negative: MACD points to a strong sell signal, ADX confirms the presence of an ongoing downtrend, and RSI is at 43.81, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, Stoch RSI and CCI remain neutral, suggesting oscillator-based uncertainty, and BBP signals an oversold condition, indicating dominant seller pressure on an intraday basis.

Limited rebound odds as downside persists within volatility range

For the next 2–3 trading days, price is expected to consolidate within the $111.38 to $132.56 volatility band relative to current levels. The outlook suggests a very low probability of a sustained upward move, with heightened likelihood of further downside action unless there is a break above immediate resistance at $123.19. Should price breach the lower boundary near $111.38, a deeper retracement could develop, while any reversal would first require confirmation above the Kijun level.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ongoing technical weakness in Strategy Inc. stock despite recent high-profile Bitcoin acquisition and liquidity moves. He notes that price action remains decisively bearish, with key support and resistance levels in focus. Until a clear reversal above $123.19 occurs, the outlook is defensive and downside risks dominate. "Until we see price break above immediate resistance, I remain cautious and see limited upside for now."

Previously it was reported that Strategy shares faced prevailing bearish technical pressures, with limited prospects for immediate upside. In light of recent equity-funded Bitcoin acquisitions and ongoing negative momentum, traders should closely monitor the $123.19 Kijun resistance for signs of any potential trend reversal in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.