What Influences NVDA Price?
Quarterly Report Data
Stocks like Nvida can usually be valued according to quarterly earnings reports that include earnings, revenue, and gross sales. When earnings exceed expectations, share prices tend to rise, while disappointing earnings tend to lower them.
For example, an increase of 20% in quarterly income at a time when the market is expecting 40% may not be considered positive. Similarly, a 10% decrease in earnings may cause a stock to rise if a larger decline is expected.
Dividend Yield
Analysts and investors use dividend yield and dividend payout ratio (DPR) to evaluate companies as dividend income investments. The dividend yield indicates how much an investor earns per share from cash dividends or dividend investments.
Investors can use dividend yield to compare dividend income from their current holdings with potential dividend income from investing in stocks and other markets.
Investing in stock is naturally stimulated by dividend announcements. Stocks that are bought before the ex-dividend date are likely to yield a dividend, so buyers are willing to pay a premium for them. As a result, the price of a stock like Nvidia increases in the days leading up to the dividend exclusion date. Generally, the increase equals the dividend amount, but the actual price change is determined by market activity rather than by a governing body.
CHIPS Act
The CHIPS Act—a massive Biden government plan to invest in the semiconductor industry—is another factor that could affect the price of Nvidia.
Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stand to lose out on the subsidies because the legislation would invest $52 billion in onshore semiconductor production. Therefore, the bill is good news for chip makers who produce their own chips, but bad news for chip companies that outsource production, like Nvidia.
It was NVDA's hope to receive a research tax credit. Yet, in the Senate's current version, the credit has been cut out, leaving most of the benefits to Intel, Micron, and Texas Instruments.
The bill already began affecting the price of Nvidia stock. In January 2023, NVDA shares fell from $190 to $177.93.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
A merger or acquisition (M&A) can have a significant impact on stock prices and the stock market. The market's reaction to the announcement of the merger and acquisition is paramount. The situation may be favorable at times and adverse at others.
The stock price of the acquiring company dips temporarily when it acquires another, while the target company's stock price spikes.
When an acquiring company pays a premium for the target company or incurs debt to finance the acquisition, its share price drops.
Because the shareholders agree to the deal only if its purchase price exceeds the company's current value, the target's short-term share price tends to rise. Share prices of acquiring companies usually rise over time as a result of acquisitions.
Nvidia’s planned acquisition of Arm, a U.K.-based chip designer is a great example of how an M&A can affect stock prices. In spite of the fact that the deal didn’t go through, Nvidia's stock has soared since the deal was proposed, causing its value to exceed $60 billion.
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FED Monetary Cycles
A change in interest rates by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) affects both the economy and the stock market because borrowing becomes more or less expensive.
Changes in interest rates generally affect the stock market immediately, but may take about a year for the rest of the economy to feel the effects.
Earnings and stock prices tend to fall when interest rates rise (with the exception of the financial sector). A higher interest rate also means a lower future discounted valuation, as future cash flow is discounted at a higher rate.
Risk Appetite
Investors' aversion to risk also affects stock prices as corporate earnings prospects change. To compensate for the risk of holding stocks, investors require an extra return called a risk premium. There’s also an association between higher risk aversion and lower stock market expectations,