Ethereum price forecast: Derivatives data hints at recovery amid 37% YTD dip
In 2025 ETH fell by 37%
Ethereum price has suffered one of its steepest weekly declines, with five consecutive bearish sessions pushing the price down by 9% to $2,077, below last year's low of $2,120. This drop has extended Ethereum’s cumulative losses for the year to 37%, sending its Relative Strength Index (RSI) into oversold territory. While this suggests a potential relief rally, key technical and derivatives market indicators provide a mixed outlook on whether a rebound is imminent.
Despite the sharp decline, the Ethereum derivatives market is showing early signs of resilience. The 30-day ETH futures premium has edged higher to 7%, up from 6% two days ago. A premium within the 5%-10% range is considered neutral, indicating that traders are not aggressively bearish. This shift suggests that selling pressure may be easing, potentially opening the door for a recovery.
Ethereum options skew remains neutral showing market confidence
Ethereum's options market has also remained relatively stable despite the sharp drop. The ETH options skew currently sits at -2%, well within the neutral range of -6% to 6%. This indicates that whales and market makers are not rushing to buy put options, signaling confidence in Ethereum’s ability to hold its ground despite the price drop.
Ethereum price dynamics (Jan 2021 - Feb 2025). Source: TradingView.
While Ethereum’s technical indicators point to near-term weakness, an upward trendline from previous years is now offering support near $2,120. The derivatives market suggests a possible rebound if key support levels hold. If Ethereum reclaims the $2,120 level and bullish momentum builds, a move toward $2,600 could materialize. Beyond that, a broader recovery to $2,800 remains possible, provided market sentiment stabilizes, and broader macroeconomic factors do not apply further downward pressure.
Ethereum dropped over 19% in the first three days of the week amid liquidation pressure. The RSI remained in negative territory, signaling continued bearish momentum despite brief rebound.
