Institutional outflows hit $541M as LTH short 177k BTC ahead of election
Bitcoin volatility surges to 80.3% as election uncertainty looms
Bitcoin is caught in a tense moment, balancing on crucial price levels as institutional outflows hit record levels just a day before the US election. Over the past week, Bitcoin has dipped over 4% below $70k, a psychological threshold that has historically acted as a resistance level. The price decline is partly driven by strategic selling from long-term holders (LTHs), who offloaded approximately 177,617 BTC, according to crypto analyst Maartunn.
This isn’t the first time LTHs have sold during a price rally, it is almost becoming a pattern. LTHs are known to often cut their holdings as prices rise, a tactic that has acted as a “contrarian indicator” in the market. During previous bull markets (2018, 2021, and earlier this year) LTHs similarly reduced exposure, signaling caution amid optimism. The current selling trend could reflect strategic repositioning ahead of a potentially volatile market as the election approaches.
Institutional Demand
Institutional interest is also shifting. On November 4, the second-largest outflow in history hit U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with a staggering $541.1 million in net withdrawals. Only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bucked the trend, attracting $38.4 million in inflows. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) took the biggest hit, shedding $169.6 million, followed by ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with $138.3 million in outflows. Grayscale’s funds weren’t spared either; the flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw $63.7 million in outflows.
The sudden shift in ETF flows reflects traders hedging their bets before the election, where a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has left markets in suspense. Trump’s pro-crypto stance has historically fueled optimism in the industry, with speculations that a Republican victory could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 milestone.
As the US election unfolds, Bitcoin resilience will be tested and key support levels to watch are $66,000 and $63,000, and if Bitcoin dips below, a drop to the $60,000 range could be expected.
Bitcoin forward volatility hits 80.3% ahead of US election. The market is cautious of a potential 10% price swing in either direction
