Bitcoin price prediction: Crypto reserve induced rally capped at 50-day EMA
Bitcoin rallies 20% to $96,500 after Trump’s crypto reserve announcement.
Bitcoin surged over the weekend, recovering 20% from its dip below $80,000, reaching a high of $96,500.
The rally coincided with the start of March and gained further momentum after former U.S. President Donald Trump revealed plans to create a crypto reserve, with Bitcoin and Ethereum at its core.
The strong start to March saw consecutive bullish trading days, with the second day bringing a 9% surge. However, this rally was capped at the 50-day EMA near $95,000, signaling a key resistance level that traders are watching closely.
Bitcoin price dynamics (Nov 2023 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
As of Monday, March 3, Bitcoin is trading near $93,000, positioned between support at $91,340 and resistance at $95,000. Despite bitcoin's recent sharp price recovery, Bitcoin’s daily RSI remains in neutral territory. This suggests that the rally has not yet pushed the market into bullish conditions, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum.
Bitcoin price outlook: RSI remains neutral despite bitcoin sharp recovery
From a sentiment perspective, Trump’s announcement provides a bullish narrative, especially among traders anticipating a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach. Additionally, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $91,340 suggests that buyers are stepping in at key support levels.
On the other hand, Bitcoin's failure to break $95,000 raises concerns about near-term upside potential. The 50-day EMA acts as a technical barrier, and with RSI remaining neutral, traders may hesitate to push prices higher without further catalysts. If Bitcoin struggles to clear $95,000, a period of consolidation or a pullback toward $91,340 could follow.
Bitcoin's price action in the coming days will depend on whether buyers can push past $95,000. A breakout above this level could open the door for a test of $100,000, while rejection at resistance may lead to a move back toward lower support zones. Traders will be watching for further developments around Trump’s crypto stance and broader market conditions to determine Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin fell 7% to $86,000 as ETF outflows signaled weak institutional demand. The price broke below last month’s low of $89,400, reinforcing bearish momentum.
