Cramer’s call sparks “inverse” betting trend toward Trump victory
The phenomenon even inspired a short-lived exchange-traded fund (ETF)
Jim Cramer’s recent market insights may have inadvertently fueled speculation of a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential race. On Monday, Nov. 4, Cramer, well-known for his financial commentary, interpreted market movements as signs of investor confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris securing the White House.
"While I can’t say I agree with what a Harris presidency might bring to the business world, at least we have Wall Street’s current read,” Cramer stated on CNBC. However, this forecast has some investors anticipating the opposite outcome, in line with the so-called "inverse Cramer" phenomenon. This trend, a cultural meme among market watchers, suggests that events often unfold contrary to Cramer’s predictions. The phenomenon even inspired a short-lived exchange-traded fund (ETF) that aimed to profit from shorting Cramer’s stock picks. Despite its intriguing premise, the fund closed within ten months due to limited traction and negative returns.
Polymarket Whales Bet Big on Trump Win
This idea aligns with recent betting data showing increased support for Trump across multiple platforms. On Polymarket, a leading prediction market, Trump holds a 55% probability of winning, surpassing Harris in recent days. Large-scale wagers have backed Trump, with prominent accounts placing millions in support. For example, a major Polymarket investor, known as “walletmobile,” recently deposited nearly $5 million in USDC, betting on a Trump win, while another key player added $3.1 million in similar positions. Together, these high-stakes wagers have added momentum to Trump’s odds, with total “yes” shares for Trump exceeding $18.5 million by early November.
This trend is also visible on Betfair, where Trump has taken a slight lead, driven by high-volume betting from both U.S. and international markets. The odds reflect confidence that could shift as election results roll in, but for now, Trump’s supporters are optimistic. With Cramer’s Harris prediction inadvertently galvanizing pro-Trump sentiment, the “inverse Cramer” effect has become a key talking point among both traditional and crypto investors. As the election approaches, all eyes are on Polymarket and other betting platforms to see if these betting trends hold steady.
Earlier this week, an investor going by the name Theo made multiple bets totaling $30 million on the prediction platform Polymarket. These wagers are linked to the U.S. presidential election results, with a potential payout of up to $80 million.
