Bitcoin price prediction: Profit-loss ratio at 0.95 signals possible short-term sell-off
Bitcoin slips below $85K as early March rally fades.
Bitcoin price witnessed early March gains but have sharply reversed, with price action now aligning with the broader downtrend seen in previous weeks.
After surging over 14% in the first two days of the month, largely driven by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding a crypto reserve, Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the 50-day EMA near $96,000. This level capped the rally, leading to a swift price correction.
On Tuesday, March 4, Bitcoin dropped over 4% in the Asian session, reaching $82,500. By the European session, it had recovered slightly, trading near $84,200. However, bearish momentum remains dominant, with the price now approaching the critical $80,000 psychological level. A break below this threshold could open the door to further losses, testing February’s low of $78,100.
Bitcoin price dynamics (Nov 2023 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. The daily and 4-hour RSI are both in negative territory, signaling continued selling pressure that could cause the downside momentum to slip below $78,100.
Bitcoin price Outlook: On-chain data hints at accumulation amid price dip
Despite the recent pullback, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a key accumulation zone. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether short-term investors are selling at a profit or loss, currently sits at 0.95—the lowest level since August 2024, when Bitcoin was consolidating around the mid-$50,000 range. A SOPR value below 1 indicates that short-term holders are selling at a loss, a sign often associated with market capitulation. Historically, such conditions have preceded potential trend reversals.
While immediate price action remains under pressure, the combination of SOPR data and proximity to key support levels suggests that Bitcoin may soon find stability. If buyers step in at or before $80,000, a recovery back toward $90,000 could materialize this week.
Bitcoin rallied 20% amid Donald Trump announcement for a crypto reserve featuring Bitcoin and Ethereum. The surge met resistance at the 50-day EMA near $95,000, capping further gains.
