Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bull run intact, worst-case dip to $70K
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bull market intact despite volatility.
Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and 100x, maintains that the current Bitcoin bull market remains intact despite recent volatility, warning that Bitcoin could fall as low as $70,000 before surging to $250,000.
Hayes also dismissed President Trump’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve as “just words,” casting doubt on its potential impact.
Key Takeaways
- Bull Market Confidence: Hayes believes the Bitcoin bull cycle is ongoing, with a temporary dip to $70K serving as a natural market reset.
- Price Predictions: Hayes forecasts a potential rebound, with Bitcoin potentially skyrocketing to $250K after bottoming out near $70K–$80K.
- Skepticism on Trump Reserve: He remains highly skeptical about Trump’s ability to implement a Bitcoin reserve, citing a constrained timeframe before midterm elections and competing policy priorities.
- Market Dynamics: Hayes warns that a synchronized drop in major U.S. indices could trigger a broader sell-off in risk assets, deepening Bitcoin’s retracement.
Market Outlook and Price Action
In his latest blog post, Hayes argued that the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin would be a decline to the previous cycle’s high of $70K. Although he is not certain Bitcoin will hit that level, he expects a fall toward $80K could present a “dead cat bounce” opportunity, where cautious traders buy on dips and avoid leverage amid broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoint price chart. Source: coinmarketcap.com
Hayes contends that a violent wave of price correction might occur if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 indexes were to drop 20% to 30% from their highs, potentially dragging Bitcoin down further before it consolidates and eventually breaks out.
Loading...
Doubts Over the Trump Reserve
Hayes expressed strong doubts that Trump’s administration will implement a strategic Bitcoin reserve. He questioned whether the president’s considerable borrowing capacity would be directed toward “America First” initiatives rather than buying Bitcoin.
“I don’t think Trump will get around to doing a bitcoin reserve,” Hayes stated, suggesting that the proposed policy is unlikely to materialize given the competing demands on federal funds.
Conclusion
Despite short-term volatility and regulatory uncertainty, Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. His analysis points to a challenging, yet ultimately upward, trajectory for the cryptocurrency, even as he questions the efficacy of high-profile government initiatives like Trump’s proposed reserve.
Recently we wrote, that Australia’s government is not considering a national crypto reserve despite growing global interest.
