Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could hit $250K if Fed renews money printing
Hayes believes the real inflection point could come if the Fed injects liquidity
Bitcoin may skyrocket to $250,000 in 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing (QE).
According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, his forecast hinges on growing market expectations that the Fed could shift away from its current tightening stance amid economic pressures.
Key takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $250K if the Fed initiates QE.
- The Fed cut its Treasury runoff cap to $5B/month starting April 1.
- Hayes argues Bitcoin is driven by expectations of fiat supply expansion.
- Market sentiment remains conservative, despite macro policy shifts
Fed liquidity moves could spark massive crypto rally
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $84,900, with many analysts cautiously optimistic about further gains.
BTC/USD price dynamics (March - April 2025). Source: TradingView
Hayes, however, believes the real inflection point could come if the Fed injects liquidity into the financial system through renewed asset purchases.
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The Fed recently reduced its monthly cap on Treasury security runoff from $25 billion to $5 billion, effective April 1. Although mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff remains unchanged at $35 billion, analysts suggest the Fed may allow these MBS positions to expire without replacement, potentially reinvesting proceeds into Treasurys.
Arthur Hayes contends that these actions amount to de facto Treasury QE and could provide a strong bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced. Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat” Hayes said, noting that liquidity injections tend to boost risk assets, especially decentralized ones like Bitcoin.
It's worth noting that previously Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin rise to $110,000.
Cautious optimism in current market positioning
Despite Hayes’ bold prediction, broader market sentiment remains measured. While some investors see upside potential amid looming policy shifts, few are betting heavily on a six-figure Bitcoin price this year. However, should the Fed formally announce QE-like measures, analysts expect rapid inflows into crypto markets.
As macroeconomic pressures build and the Federal Reserve re-evaluates its tightening path, crypto investors are closely watching for signals of a policy pivot. If quantitative easing resumes in any form, Arthur Hayes’ prediction of Bitcoin surging to $250,000 could become a defining narrative for the digital asset market in 2025.
We also informed that GameStop gets $1.5 billion to buy Bitcoins.
