Altcoin rally may be coming, but few will benefit
Only high-utility altcoins could rise in next rally
A market rally in altcoins may be coming in the next two months. “Traders should follow where network activity is moving — it’s the guiding star for crypto trading,” says Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision.
Although the majority of altcoin traders have been disappointed by recent market performance, many continue to believe a rally is on the horizon — and crypto analysts are backing that belief.
According to Coutts and Cointelegraph, this cycle might bring one final altcoin rally, and only tokens with real utility and strong network activity are likely to see price appreciation.
“I think altcoins will push out once more. The question is whether it’ll be a sustainable rally over six to twelve months,” said Coutts, expressing caution.
Coutts believes a potential altcoin recovery could begin as early as June — but only high-quality, useful tokens will benefit.
“At this point I’m not completely sure, but I believe that quality altcoins, where activity is returning and driving prices, will definitely see a recovery among some of the better names,” he added.
Network activity: The key indicator
As of early 2024, the number of altcoins had surpassed 36 million. Still, Ethereum remains dominant in terms of total value locked (TVL), holding 55.56%, followed by Solana (6.89%), BNB Smart Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%), according to CoinGecko.
Currently, several key indicators used by the crypto industry to track the arrival of “altcoin season” suggest it has not yet begun.
Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Speculation Index has dropped to 12%, down 53% since December 25 — the same period during which Ethereum fell by 49% from $3,490, per CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which compares the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, stands at just 14 out of 100, labeling the current trend a “Bitcoin Season.”
Altcoin Season Index and Altcoin Market Cap in 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin’s dominance — often used to track pullbacks that indicate an approaching altcoin season — is currently at 62.84%. However, some analysts argue this metric is no longer a reliable signal for altcoin performance.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently stated that Bitcoin dominance "no longer defines altcoin season — trading volume does."
Jamie Coutts also emphasizes that traders should watch where network activity is concentrating and use that as a navigational guide for their crypto strategy. By the end of Q2, Coutts expects Bitcoin’s price to recover, regardless of whether altcoin season officially begins.
As we wrote, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing an unprecedented shift as the altcoin season index has plummeted to record lows.
