Analyst Kharitonov: Bitcoin 2025 peak hinges on U.S. policy and rate cuts
Historically, BTC has displayed explosive growth during bull cycles.
Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a potential $200,000 peak in 2025 is stirring debate among market analysts and investors.
Historically, BTC has displayed explosive growth during bull cycles, and all signs suggest the current cycle is no exception. Analyst Anton Kharitonov highlights that $200,000 represents the most likely scenario based on historical data, with a broader range of $150,000 to $300,000 capturing the variability of potential outcomes.
Key Variables: Bitcoin Reserves and Fed Policy
Two critical factors will shape Bitcoin's journey toward new highs: U.S. government policy on Bitcoin reserves and the Federal Reserve's monetary stance. “Much will depend on whether the U.S. begins to treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset and how quickly the Fed lowers rates,” says Kharitonov.
The prospect of the U.S. government establishing Bitcoin reserves remains a long shot, with Kharitonov calling it “rather pessimistic.” Despite growing adoption of Bitcoin globally, he notes that Washington appears hesitant to embrace BTC as part of its monetary strategy. This reluctance could limit Bitcoin’s upside, particularly if other governments, such as those in Asia or the Middle East, move more aggressively in this space.
Conversely, Kharitonov’s optimism on monetary policy shines through. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates below 4% by late 2025, a shift that could provide significant tailwinds for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Lower borrowing costs and a more accommodative financial environment historically correlate with higher cryptocurrency valuations.
Outlook
If the stars align—moderate monetary easing and bullish market sentiment—Bitcoin could convincingly break into the six-figure territory. But achieving the upper end of the $150,000–$300,000 range will likely require more than a favorable Fed. It will need governments, investors, and institutions to bet big on Bitcoin’s future.
Last week, analyst Anton Kharitonov argued that Bitcoin's current rally is far from over, as the market remains far from “overheated” and key indicators like the VAPLI suggest significant room for growth. Highlighting Bitcoin's return to a neutral zone after prolonged undervaluation driven by regulatory pressures and sell-offs, Kharitonov reassured investors that the cryptocurrency is poised for sustained gains in the coming months.
