Lyn Alden lowers Bitcoin price forecast
Lyn Alden sees Bitcoin finishing 2025 higher despite tariff drag.
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin will finish 2025 above its current price of $85,000, but says that the U.S. government’s recent tariff actions have muted what could have been a more bullish trajectory.
Speaking on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories, Alden cited President Donald Trump’s February tariff announcement as a key factor holding back Bitcoin’s upside potential this year, reports Cointelegraph.
“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said. Still, she sees upside ahead. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”
Alden added that a “massive liquidity unlock”—such as the U.S. Federal Reserve stepping in with quantitative easing or implementing yield curve control—could reignite momentum and help Bitcoin approach more optimistic price levels.
Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading cuts both ways
Alden emphasized that Bitcoin’s always-on nature means it is more sensitive to market volatility than traditional financial assets. She noted that when traditional markets show signs of stress, Bitcoin often reacts ahead of the Monday open, saying, “Some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare.”
Despite this, she argued that Bitcoin could break away from traditional market indexes like the Nasdaq 100, particularly in macroeconomic scenarios where U.S. equities struggle but global liquidity remains strong.
Referencing the pre-2008 financial crisis period, Alden said Bitcoin could benefit from a similar environment. “If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she said.
Bitcoin as a global liquidity gauge
In her prior research, Alden described Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” noting it tracks global M2 money supply direction 83% of the time on a 12-month basis. This places Bitcoin above other assets like gold or U.S. stocks in terms of its correlation to global liquidity trends.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap.
Recently we wrote that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged a second straight day of net inflows on Tuesday, signaling a potential shift in institutional sentiment.
