Bitcoin price rally tests durability as RSI hits overbought zone amid leverage concerns
Bitcoin hits $95,940 but rally driven by leverage, not user growth.
Bitcoin price has extended its recovery from the April low at $74,500, gaining 12% over the past week to reach a seven-week high at $95,940.
The consistent string of bullish daily closes has fueled optimism for a retest of major resistance levels.
However, beneath the impressive price action, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. The latest surge appears primarily driven by leveraged positions and derivatives trading, rather than by organic demand or an influx of new users. Bitcoin network activity has shown minimal growth, suggesting the rally is being propelled more by speculative flows than by real user adoption.
This structural weakness raises questions about the rally's sustainability, especially as external risks mount. Tensions between the United States and China have escalated, introducing a potential drag on risk appetite and increasing the fragility of leverage-fueled markets like Bitcoin.
Key support levels at 20 and 50 moving average as RSI climbs to 70
Technical indicators are also highlighting possible exhaustion. Bitcoin’s daily and 4-hour RSI readings have climbed to the 70 mark, approaching overbought territory where upside momentum typically begins to slow. While the broader trend remains bullish, the lack of strong fundamental support combined with overbought technical conditions warrants close monitoring.
BTC price dynamics (Dec 2024 - April 2025). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin now trades just 1.9% below the previous month’s high at $96,540 and about 5.6% away from the psychological $100,000 level. These milestones could invite profit-taking if momentum stalls. Key support lies at $93,500, around the 20-day moving average, and at $90,500 near the 50-day moving average — levels that could be tested if the rally begins to unwind.
In the short term, Bitcoin bulls will likely attempt to push through $96,540 and set sights on $100,000. However, the combination of speculative drivers, technical strain, and growing macroeconomic risks suggests the next phase could see increased volatility and potential pullbacks if buyers lose momentum.
Bitcoin bounced from the 1-hour moving average near $91,600, showing buyers defended short-term support. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index signalled fading bullish sentiment.
