Bloomberg predicts mass approval of crypto-ETFs in 2025
Odds rise for U.S. altcoin ETFs, with Solana and XRP leading the pack.
The odds of approval for U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to major altcoins are rising, according to fresh predictions by Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and forecasting market Polymarket, despite ongoing delays from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In a recent outlook, Balchunas placed the odds of approval for an Avalanche ETF at 75%, making it the lowest among leading altcoins. DOGE faces an 80% chance, while XRP and Solana lead the pack with odds as high as 87%, reports Cryptopolitan.
These projections suggest that multiple altcoin-based ETFs could receive regulatory approval before the end of 2025.
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Key Takeaways
- Approval odds: Bloomberg and Polymarket estimate XRP (87%), Solana (83–90%), DOGE (80%), and Avalanche (75%) have high chances of ETF approval in 2025.
- Timeline: The SEC is unlikely to approve any new altcoin ETFs before Q4 2025, based on current delays and application backlogs.
- Most popular filings: XRP and Solana dominate with 19 pending fund applications for XRP alone, while Ethereum and Solana staking ETFs are also being considered.
- Polymarket trends: Traders place highest bets on Solana ETF approval by end-2025, with $142K in volume. Q2 approval odds are falling fast due to SEC delays.
Slow Summer Ahead, But Q4 2025 Looks Promising
ETF approvals often face drawn-out review cycles. This year is no exception, with at least five altcoin ETF applications—including those for DOGE, XRP, and ETH staking products—delayed by the SEC for further review.
While the altcoin ETF narrative previously sparked sharp price rallies, recent announcements have had a muted effect on token prices. XRP, for example, continues to hover near $2.24, even after another filing delay.
ETF Staking Could Be a Game-Changer
One of the most significant developments in 2025 could be the inclusion of staking rewards in Ethereum and Solana ETF structures. If approved, this would offer investors exposure to yield-generating assets within a regulated framework — a feature that could further differentiate next-gen ETFs from their earlier Bitcoin and Ethereum counterparts.
Outlook
Despite recent regulatory roadblocks, analysts and prediction markets agree that 2025 may become a breakout year for altcoin ETFs, especially for legacy assets like Solana, XRP, and Cardano. With investor demand rising and institutional infrastructure expanding, the ETF pipeline may transform from speculative hope into concrete capital inflows by year’s end.
If the SEC continues its shift toward clearer guidelines under new leadership, the crypto ETF landscape could soon expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, reshaping the asset class’s place in traditional finance.
Recently we wrote that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF purchased $970 million worth of Bitcoin on April 28, marking the second-largest single-day inflow for the fund since its launch in January 2024.
