JPMorgan bets on Bitcoin growth in H2 2025
JPMorgan says gold-to-bitcoin hedge is now zero-sum as capital shifts toward BTC
JPMorgan analysts say the traditional “debasement trade,” where investors hedge against fiat currency debasement by holding gold and bitcoin, has shifted into a zero-sum dynamic.
Since mid-April, gold has declined nearly 8% while bitcoin has rallied 18%, with capital flowing out of gold ETFs and into spot bitcoin funds. Futures data confirms the trend, showing reduced net long positions in gold and a simultaneous increase in bitcoin open interest, reports The Block.
This reversal reflects changing investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and a recalibrated interest rate outlook.
Corporate and government interest boost bitcoin narrative
Institutional players continue to accumulate bitcoin, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has already met 60% of its $42 billion BTC acquisition target, while Metaplanet in Japan has overtaken El Salvador in total bitcoin holdings.
Additionally, state-level adoption is gaining momentum: New Hampshire recently passed legislation permitting up to 5% of reserves in bitcoin and gold, and Arizona is funding a digital asset reserve with staking rewards and airdrops. These moves indicate a growing alignment between public finance and crypto, especially as distrust in traditional monetary systems deepens.
Crypto infrastructure and regulation bring added legitimacy
The maturation of crypto infrastructure is accelerating institutional adoption. Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit gives it a foothold in crypto derivatives, while Kraken’s purchase of NinjaTrader and Gemini’s pan-European license expand regulatory-compliant offerings.
These developments not only improve liquidity and reduce counterparty risk but also signal rising confidence in the sector from institutional and retail participants alike. As legal clarity increases under the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, JPMorgan sees bitcoin benefiting more than gold in the latter half of 2025.
Recently we wrote that Bitcoin’s price five-week winning streak is on track to pause, as price action this week shows signs of fatigue.
