JPMorgan predicts stablecoins market cap to hit $500 billion
JPMorgan casts doubt on stablecoin market reaching $1–$2 trillion
JPMorgan analysts have expressed skepticism over recent predictions that the stablecoin market could balloon from its current $250 billion valuation to between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in the coming years.
In a research note, the bank’s team wrote that such exponential forecasts are “far too optimistic” given the current market dynamics, reports CoinDesk.
Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar or gold, play a critical role in the crypto ecosystem by facilitating payments, providing liquidity, and enabling international money transfers. However, JPMorgan argues that the expected surge in stablecoin use—especially in real-world payments—is unlikely to materialize on the scale that some bullish analysts predict.
Stablecoin growth remains largely crypto-native
According to JPMorgan’s analysis, nearly 88% of today’s stablecoin demand is tied to crypto-native activities such as trading, decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, and funds parked by crypto companies. In contrast, real-world payments account for just 6% of stablecoin usage, a figure the bank believes will see only marginal growth, even under favorable conditions.
The report dismissed the idea that stablecoins will significantly replace traditional banking deposits or money market funds, citing stablecoins’ lack of yield and the friction involved in moving funds between fiat and crypto ecosystems. Additionally, JPMorgan rejected comparisons between stablecoins and China’s digital yuan or platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, emphasizing that these centralized, government-backed systems operate under entirely different frameworks.
Other banks forecast a more bullish scenario
While JPMorgan remains cautious, other financial institutions see a much brighter future for stablecoins. In particular, Standard Chartered has projected that the total stablecoin supply could surge to $2 trillion by the end of 2028 if supportive U.S. legislation is passed. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (Genius) Act, expected to pass in the coming months, could dramatically reshape the regulatory landscape.
Standard Chartered believes that this legislation would legitimize the stablecoin industry, encouraging institutional adoption and enabling nearly tenfold growth over the next few years. According to the bank’s April research, the combination of regulatory clarity and market expansion could lead to stablecoins playing a much more prominent role in global finance.
Recently we wrote that JPMorgan’s blockchain division, Kinexys, has partnered with S&P Global Commodity Insights, EcoRegistry, and the ICR (International Carbon Registry) for a pilot program to tokenize carbon credits.
