Weekly forecast: Ethereum ETFs attract strong inflows
Ethereum’s institutional demand surges
Ethereum (ETH) remains in the spotlight as U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs continue to attract substantial inflows, marking what could soon be an eight-week streak of consistent investment.
On Thursday alone, Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $148.5 million, their second-highest daily figure since February, according to data from SoSoValue. If Friday’s flows remain positive, these ETFs could surpass $2 billion in cumulative inflows over the past two months, signaling strong institutional confidence. Key drivers behind this surge include the increasing use of Ethereum in tokenization projects like Robinhood’s launch of tokenized U.S. stocks on Arbitrum and the growing number of public companies adopting Ethereum as a treasury asset. Firms like SharpLink Gaming and BitMine are now prioritizing Ethereum strategies, further cementing its role in corporate portfolios.
Market positioning and legislative momentum support a bullish Ethereum outlook
Traders on platforms like Derive are showing strong bullish sentiment, especially as almost 80% of ETH call options for July expirations are clustered above the $3,000 mark, with nearly 30% targeting strike prices above $3,500. This positioning highlights the market’s clear expectation of an impending breakout. Meanwhile, favorable U.S. legislative developments are fueling optimism. The House of Representatives is preparing to review the GENIUS stablecoin bill and the broader crypto market structure bill during the upcoming Crypto Week starting July 14.
Progress on these bills is seen as pivotal for future crypto regulation, with traders closely monitoring the outcome. Additionally, nearly half of the stablecoin market operates on Ethereum’s blockchain, which reinforces its growing relevance. However, the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and geopolitical events remain potential market movers that could either accelerate or dampen Ethereum’s momentum in the coming weeks.
Technical risks emerge as death cross threatens potential correction
Despite the robust inflows and bullish trader sentiment, Ethereum’s technical chart is flashing warning signs that could lead to a substantial correction. ETH recently faced resistance near $2,600, where both the 50-week and 100-week Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) converged, rejecting upward movement. The weekly chart now shows the 50-period SMA edging closer to a death cross with the 100-period SMA, a historically bearish signal that could trigger a 35% price decline, potentially sending ETH down to $1,750 if the pattern is confirmed.
Ethereum price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
This cautious outlook is supported by recent futures liquidations, which totaled $56.8 million over the past 24 hours, heavily weighted toward long positions. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator both indicate neutral market momentum with a slight bullish tilt, Ethereum remains at a critical juncture. A decisive breakout above the symmetrical triangle’s upper boundary could invalidate the bearish scenario and pave the way for a renewed rally toward $3,000 and beyond.
Weekly forecast: Ethereum likely to stay range-bound with breakout potential
Looking ahead to next week, Ethereum is expected to remain within its current trading range of $2,400 to $2,800, with potential for sharp movements depending on key macro and regulatory events. Analysts predict the upcoming crypto-focused sessions in the U.S. House of Representatives, particularly debates on the GENIUS stablecoin bill and the CLARITY Act, could introduce sudden volatility and potentially act as catalysts for a breakout. Technical indicators suggest that unless Ethereum decisively clears the $2,800 resistance level, it may continue consolidating, with downside risk increasing if the death cross fully materializes.
Futures open interest and ETF flows will also be critical to monitor, as sustained inflows could provide the bullish fuel needed to challenge higher price levels. Overall, the next seven days could see Ethereum trade sideways with bursts of volatility tied to legislative headlines, Federal Reserve comments, and ETF momentum.
Recently we wrote that Ethereum (ETH) price is trading near $2,556 on July 4, showing signs of stabilization after reclaiming lost ground earlier this week.
