Weekly forecast: Bitcoin holds above $108K as whale wallets stir market uncertainty
Bitcoin ends first week of July in the green, but ATH remains elusive
Bitcoin finished the first week of July with a modest 0.6% gain, trading at $108,085 at the time of writing. While BTC briefly climbed above $110,000, hopes for a swift move to a new all-time high (ATH) remain unfulfilled.
One of the key macroeconomic drivers was stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, suggesting the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates before the fall.
Another major event occurred over the weekend, when two whale wallets dormant for 15 years suddenly moved 80,000 BTC—worth approximately $8.6 billion—across eight addresses. This unexpected activity coincided with U.S. Independence Day and raised concerns of a potential market sell-off.
While prominent crypto investor Lark Davis believes such a massive transfer is likely part of an OTC (over-the-counter) deal—which typically has limited impact on market price—traders will be watching closely in the coming week.
In this environment, bearish sentiment may once again take precedence, with BTC trading sideways in a range bound by large-scale coin movements.
Bitcoin price chart, 4h. Source: TradingView
With Bitcoin hovering around $108,100, key support levels are $107,800 and $107,300, with a risk of falling below $105,300. On the upside, resistance sits at $108,300 and $109,100—levels that need to be cleared before another attempt at the $110,000 mark.
Black swans, white swans, and everything in between
This week, market direction will be shaped by geopolitical headlines (including Trump's trade negotiations and ongoing conflicts), along with key U.S. economic data. These include CPI and PPI releases, jobless claims, and the FOMC May meeting minutes.
With the RSI 14 hovering around 55, investor sentiment is neutral, suggesting Bitcoin may continue trading sideways in the $107,000–$110,000 corridor—unless a major unexpected event occurs.
As we wrote, Bitcoin could reach new ATH amid passage of ‘Big Beautiful Bill'
