Bitcoin price prediction: Fear and Greed Index signals retail FOMO as institutions eye imbalance
Bitcoin struggles to hold gains after all-time high, trades flat near $118K
Bitcoin’s price action this week has been between the enthusiasm of early July’s rally and emerging technical resistance.
After setting a new all-time high at $122,000 earlier in the week, BTC quickly reversed course, shedding gains down to a four-day low near $115,700. The decline printed a daily bearish engulfing candle, marking the first major bearish candlestick pattern since early May. That alone has raised questions about whether buyers are still strong enough to defend the recent gains.
Highlights
-Bitcoin trades at $118,000 today after failing to reclaim $120,000 midweek
-Daily volume has dropped as both bulls and bears wait for a clear breakout
-20 EMA holds short-term support, but a break could expose imbalance below $114,400
Midweek, Bitcoin made a recovery effort by retesting the $120,000 psychological level. However, that key resistance proved difficult to overcome. On Wednesday, BTC closed at $118,600, which is exactly where the asset opened the week.
BTC price dynamics (July 2025). Source: TradingView
That flat positioning relative to the weekly open tells a story of market indecision. Bulls are trying to regain momentum, but the failed attempt to reclaim $120,000 and close above it speaks to exhaustion. At the same time, bears are yet to trigger a strong follow-through.
Bitcoin short-term support rests on 20 EMA, but low volume threatens selloff
Adding to the indecision is the drop in daily trading volume observed over the last three sessions. Lower volume during price consolidation near a major resistance level suggests that both bulls and bears are waiting for a clearer trigger before committing.
Today, Thursday, July 17, Bitcoin trades near $118,000, recording a 0.5% loss for the day and the week. It had touched an intraday low at $117,650. The 4-hour 20 EMA has so far managed to hold the price, acting as short-term support around this level. A break below that EMA could trigger further sell-off toward the earlier weekly low at $115,700.
From a broader technical perspective, the rally in early July created a visible sell-side imbalance between $114,400 and $112,000. That price pocket holds a buyside inefficiency that institutional sellers may want to rebalance. Retail traders may be at risk of being trapped, especially as the Binance Fear and Greed Index currently reads 70, indicating a state of greed. If that support at the 4-hour 20 EMA fails, the market may look to sweep liquidity into the imbalance zone.
Bitcoin dropped after hotter-than-expected CPI data reduced hopes for a July rate cut. Bitcoin bounced to $118,000 as RSI turned mildly bullish near 56 before the PPI release.
