Toncoin breaks triangle resistance as price climbs toward $3.60 upside target
Toncoin confirms breakout above trendline, supported by rising RSI and reclaim of key averages
Toncoin (TON) has broken above a long-standing descending trendline, confirming a bullish breakout from a multi-month symmetrical triangle. The price climbed to $3.23 on Thursday, its highest level since early May, as buyers reclaimed control after weeks of consolidation.
Highlights
- Toncoin breaks out of triangle, trading at $3.23 after reclaiming 20/50/100 EMAs
- RSI at 67.39 signals strong momentum; $3.63 is the next major resistance
- Net outflows of $733,000 suggest some caution despite bullish structure
The move is supported by a strong reclaim of the 20, 50, and 100-day exponential moving averages, now stacked between $2.97 and $3.14, with all three turning upward indicating growing trend strength. The symmetrical triangle had developed since March, marked by rising lows and a flat overhead resistance, compressing price into a tightening apex. The breakout confirms a shift in structure and sentiment, with RSI climbing to 67.39 which is just below the overbought zone, showing sustained buying interest without exhaustion.
TONUSD price forecast (Source: TradingView)
The next critical level is the 200-day EMA near $3.63, which also aligns with a previous resistance zone from April. If TON holds above $3.20, the door opens toward $3.60 and potentially $3.80 in the coming sessions. Despite the strength, caution remains warranted. Blockchain data showed net outflows of approximately $733,000 on July 17, even as the price rose. This suggests that some traders may be taking profits or moving assets off exchanges, potentially muting follow-through momentum. Nevertheless, as long as price remains above $3.00, the breakout remains technically intact.
Market outlook and key levels
Toncoin now enters a higher-risk, higher-reward phase. Sustained gains above $3.20 would validate the breakout and increase the likelihood of testing $3.63 and $3.80. However, any retracement toward the $2.95–$3.00 zone would be viewed as healthy consolidation unless breached decisively.
Previously, we noted TON’s coiling structure and rejection near descending resistance. This breakout confirms the shift in structure and opens a new bullish leg, provided short-term support levels are respected.
