Bitcoin price neutral-to-bullish signals persist despite resistance at $100,000
BTC rebounds to $99,300, nearing the $100K resistance
Bitcoin has experienced a notable journey this week, climbing from $92,500 to test the critical $100,000 psychological barrier. While this milestone also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, it highlights mixed sentiment among market participants.
With Bitcoin now trading around $98,000, critical indicators and broader market trends paint a picture of what may lie ahead for the cryptocurrency.
BTC price dynamics (November-December 2024). Source: TradingView.
Market indicators like Bitcoin derivatives reflect optimism as it remains tilted towards a neutral-to-bullish stance, despite the sharp price fluctuations. The Bitcoin futures monthly contracts are currently trading at a 12% premium over the spot market, well above the neutral range of 5%-10%. This signals strong demand for leveraged long positions. Similarly, Bitcoin put options are trading at a 2% discount to equivalent call options, a continuation of the trend over the past two weeks. Typically, a premium on put options exceeding 6% indicates heightened bearish sentiment, which is absent in this case.
Macroeconomics points to bullish outlook for Bitcoin price
Traditional financial markets have also played a role in Bitcoin’s recent trajectory. The S&P 500 erased its monthly losses before Christmas, signaling improved risk appetite, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.59% from 4.23% two weeks earlier. Rising yields often reflect expectations of higher inflation or growing government debt, factors that tend to favor scarce assets like Bitcoin during periods of monetary stimulus.
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s RSI on the hourly chart has declined below 50, suggesting waning bullish momentum, though it has not yet entered oversold territory. The 100 EMA, currently near $97,500, may act as a near-term support level, while resistance remains firmly at $100,000. A broader support zone lies around $92,000, which has cushioned against further declines since late November.
While Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $100,000, the neutral-to-bullish signals in derivatives markets and supportive macroeconomic trends suggest the potential for a sustainable rally if the $97,500 support holds.
Bitcoin's price rebounded 7% from its recent low of $92,000 to a 3-day high of $99,300. Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the psychological $100,000 level, despite positive RSI momentum.
