Bitcoin price nears ATH at $109,400, but STH SOPR turns negative
Bitcoin trades near all-time high as momentum builds in early European session
Bitcoin is trading at $105,500 in today’s early European session, just 3.7% shy of its all-time high of $109,400.
After a quiet Asian session, the cryptocurrency has gained 4% this week and an impressive 13.78% year-to-date. While Bitcoin’s price momentum garners attention, critical on-chain data offers insights into potential market trends, particularly around short-term holders (STHs).
On-chain data highlights a notable shift in STH behaviour, with the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) turning negative. This metric compares 30-day and 365-day SOPR to determine whether STHs are realising profits or losses.
A negative STH SOPR indicates that some STHs are selling at a loss, a development that has historically led to two potential scenarios: either holding their Bitcoin as a psychological price floor or capitulating, which could trigger further price corrections. Analyst Darkfost points out that these periods of realised losses often serve as strategic entry points for long-term investors, presenting opportunities during temporary market dips.
Bitcoin price outlook: RSI signals sustained momentum
Bitcoin’s recent rise has turned the previous January peak of $102,700 into a critical support level. This support reinforces bullish sentiment and is further backed by technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily and 4-hour charts remains above 50, signalling sustained momentum. These factors point to a favourable market setup for further upward movement.
BTC price dynamics (December 2024-January 2025). Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin’s proximity to its all-time high, coupled with solid support levels and bullish indicators, paints an optimistic picture. However, STH activity adds a layer of complexity, as market participants weigh whether losses will lead to capitulation or consolidation. If Bitcoin maintains its momentum and key support holds at $102,700, a fresh test of $109,430 may be within reach.
Bitcoin set a new all-time high of $109,390 before retreating below $102,700. The cryptocurrency faced increased volatility after President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
