Polymarket faces criticism over controversial decision on TikTok blocking prediction
Polymarket faces backlash over controversial TikTok ban resolution.
Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction platform, is facing criticism from its users following the contentious resolution of a high-stakes market titled “TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?”
The market, which saw $120 million in trading volume, resolved to “Yes” on Jan. 20, after the US Supreme Court upheld a ban on TikTok citing national security risks, reports Cointelegraph.
However, bettors argue that the decision was premature and misleading, as TikTok remains operational for most Americans following a temporary extension granted by President Donald Trump.
Confusion Over TikTok’s Status
The TikTok ban officially took effect on Jan. 19, with the app displaying a notification to users indicating it would no longer be accessible. The Biden administration justified the action, claiming that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, posed a national security threat. However, a day later, Trump announced a 75-day reprieve to negotiate a deal with ByteDance, leaving the app functional for most users.
This turn of events led to heated debates on Polymarket, with many users questioning the platform’s decision. A bettor, Sky, criticized the resolution: “The ban didn’t happen, and TikTok is working fine for most Americans. Trump gave it an extension literally live. So why is it 99% Yes?”
Defending the decision, another user, silkroad69, pointed out: “A law banning TikTok was created and took effect on Jan. 19. The market never said anything about temporary extensions.”
Despite these clarifications, some users, like Spot, called the decision “disgusting” and labeled the platform a “scam.” A petition demanding accountability for alleged manipulation has emerged but has garnered fewer than 100 signatures.
Questions Surrounding Polymarket’s Dispute Resolution
Polymarket relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) to resolve its markets, with disputes escalating to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) if necessary. In this case, however, the DVM process was bypassed, fueling allegations of manipulation.
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced such accusations. In 2024, bettors challenged the platform’s handling of markets on an Ethereum ETF and a controversial prediction involving Barron Trump’s alleged role in a memecoin. Both incidents drew criticism for perceived inconsistencies and platform overreach.
What’s Next?
The controversy underscores the challenges prediction markets face in maintaining transparency and trust among users. As Polymarket continues to grow, resolving disputes fairly will remain critical to its credibility. The fallout from this TikTok market decision may prompt the platform to reevaluate its dispute resolution processes to avoid further damage to its reputation.
Recently we wrote, that Thailand is poised to join a growing list of nations restricting access to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace that authorities have classified as an illegal gambling platform.
