Bitcoin MPI signals easing miner pressure as price challenges 50-day EMA
Bitcoin faces key resistance at $103,800
Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained below the $103,800 resistance, with recent declines testing the $100,000 psychological support.
Despite three consecutive bearish days, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, and on-chain miner data suggests a potential recovery ahead.
Bitcoin briefly touched $103,800 yesterday but failed to hold gains as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart acted as a ceiling for price advances, pushing price back to $100,000 before stabilizing.
BTC price dynamics (November 2023-January 2025). Source: Tradingview
Today's session saw Bitcoin open at $101,330, climbing 1% during Asian trading to reach $102,400. However, sustained upward momentum remains limited as the market struggles to break through technical barriers.
While price action shows near-term weakness, on-chain data presents a contrasting outlook. The Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI), which tracks miner outflows relative to its 365-day moving average, has recently formed a bullish crossover. Historically, similar patterns have preceded price recoveries, suggesting that selling pressure from miners may be easing.
Bitcoin’s RSI stays bullish while price stalls below $103,800
The 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart near $103,800 resistance remains a key hurdle that could pave the way for further upside. While the $100,000 psychological support level which recently cushioned recent losses could prevent a deeper correction. And despite three bearish days, the RSI has not entered oversold conditions, implying underlying strength.
Bitcoin’s price trajectory now hinges on whether buyers can overcome resistance at $103,800. However, the bullish MPI crossover suggests the potential for renewed upside, making the coming sessions crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.
MicroStrategy’s $1.1 billion Bitcoin purchase boosted market confidence. In response, Bitcoin rebounded to $103,000 after dipping below $100,000.
