Prospects of the long-awaited Altseason amid market uncertainty - Analysis by HTX
Prospects of the long-awaited Altseason amid market uncertainty - Analysis by HTX
The cryptocurrency market remains in a state of flux, with Bitcoin maintaining its dominance but showing signs of slowing momentum. This has led to questions about the prospects for the return of the "Altcoin Season". HTX is looking for answers.
The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin failing to stabilize at the $60,000 mark since recent “Black Monday.” Despite the earlier bull market momentum, driven by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, liquidity is thinning, and new narratives are scarce, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rally.
Altcoins, in particular, have been hit hard, according to the HTX report. While certain tokens like SOL and TON have shown strong performance in 2024, the broader altcoin market has not experienced the widespread gains typically seen in previous bull markets. Data from CoinGecko reveals that altcoins have seen a modest market cap increase of $72.8 billion this year, an 8% rise. In contrast, Bitcoin's market cap has surged by $368.2 billion, marking a 44.5% increase, highlighting the disparity in performance.
Historically, altcoins have been expected to follow Bitcoin's lead in bull markets, often outperforming it in growth. However, the anticipated Altcoin Season has not materialized this year, leaving investors questioning whether altcoins will meet expectations in the future. With the crypto market often following a four-year cycle, some analysts predict a larger bull market next year.
Several industry experts have expressed their skepticism about the near-term prospects for altcoins.
Thus, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, recently noted that major players have been offloading altcoins in favor of Bitcoin, a trend he expects to continue throughout 2024.
Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, shares a similarly pessimistic view. In July, he predicted at X that over 98% of altcoins have likely reached their peak for this cycle, with only a few exceptions possibly achieving new highs in late 2024 or early 2025.
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On the other hand, some industry veterans remain optimistic about a future altcoin bull market, albeit under specific conditions. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that altcoin season could return once Bitcoin and Ether break decisively through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.
During HTX’s 11th anniversary event, Justin Sun, a member of the HTX Global Advisory Board, echoed this sentiment, predicting that quality altcoins could outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market. He believes that promising altcoins are currently limited to mainstream coins like TRX, SOL, and DOGE, or new tokens with innovative concepts.
The consensus in the crypto industry is clear: while some altcoins may generate wealth in the next bull market, only a select few are likely to do so.
See also: KuCoin 2024 H1 report – Reaching 34M users and leading with compliance
