Bitcoin price nears $100,000 but leverage and momentum signal caution
Institutional demand may drive Bitcoin’s next move
Bitcoin price has been consolidating within a tight 5% range below the critical $100,000 psychological level for the past six days.
Support at $95,000 has anchored this consolidation, and after a bullish close on Monday, Bitcoin surged early in Tuesday’s European session, breaching the previous day’s high at $98,400. While this upward momentum suggests an attempt at the six-figure milestone, Bitcoin’s leverage ratio and broader market signals cast doubt on an immediate breakout.
Bitcoin’s leverage ratio has declined alongside falling open interest (OI), signaling a reduction in speculative trading. This trend suggests traders are unwinding leveraged positions, possibly in response to shifting risk sentiment. Additionally, a notable outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges (CEXs) to Coinbase Prime and ETF reserves indicates growing long-term accumulation. With fewer leveraged bets, Bitcoin’s price action may become less volatile in the near term, while the long-term trajectory depends on renewed institutional demand.
Bitcoin price dynamics (January 2025-February 2025). Source: TradingView
Short-term bullish signals emerge, but long-term outlook remains weak
However, the short-term technical outlook presents a bullish case. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned positive, reinforcing the strength of the recent upward push. However, the daily RSI remains in bearish territory, suggesting that while short-term traders are driving prices higher, a sustainable move past $100,000 is unlikely without stronger support from long-term momentum.
Bitcoin’s latest move above $98,400 sets the stage for a potential test of $100,000. However, the bearish daily RSI and declining leverage suggest that a breakout is not a certainty. A rejection near the psychological resistance could lead to further consolidation or a retest of $95,000. For a sustained rally beyond $100,000, a resurgence in open interest and a more favorable long-term momentum shift would be necessary.
Bitcoin price has struggled to gain bullish momentum in recent days, facing resistance near key technical levels while on-chain activity declines. The price recently dropped to a five-day low of $94,500, due to consistent selling pressure from the 50-day EMA at $98,500. Bitcoin price has struggled to gain bullish momentum in recent days, facing resistance near key technical levels while on-chain activity declines. The price recently dropped to a five-day low of $94,500, due to consistent selling pressure from the 50-day EMA at $98,500.
Bitcoin price faces resistance near key technical levels while on-chain activity declines. The price recently dropped due to consistent selling pressure from the 50-day EMA at $98,500.
