Running in circles: What holds back Bitcoin price in 2025
No new highs — just going in circles: Why Bitcoin is stalling in 2025
2025 was supposed to be a triumph for Bitcoin investors. Institutional trust has been rising, Bitcoin treasuries are booming, new ETFs are launching, and adoption keeps widening. And while yesterday the BTC price briefly broke above $109,000 — even hitting $110,000 at one point — the euphoria was short-lived. Today, the asset is back to trading near $108,995. So what’s preventing Bitcoin from securing new highs?
In the first half of the year, public and private companies increased their BTC holdings by 14% — from 1 million to 1.14 million coins. That sounds impressive, but it mirrors Bitcoin’s price growth over the same period: also 14%. In other words, corporate buying has not been a market catalyst.
Shifting coins from hand to hand
One reason for Bitcoin’s sluggish price action lies in the nature of demand. BTC holdings by public companies jumped from 590,000 to nearly 849,000 coins. But at the same time, private companies cut their positions by 119,000 BTC. So while public disclosures may look flashy, there’s no net inflow of capital — just a rotation of assets.
Take BitMEX, for instance, which reduced its BTC stash from 54,652 to 52,020 coins. The Tezos Foundation went from 4,247 to 2,903 BTC. Some new public players — like Twenty One, a Bitfinex and Tether venture — simply moved Bitcoin from affiliated entities into newly formed treasury-label structures. These shifts change the accounting, not the demand.
ETF, MSTR, and the zero-impulse effect
Even massive investments in spot Bitcoin ETFs don’t guarantee price growth. At the beginning of the year, funds held 1.29 million BTC; today, that number is 1.4 million — a 9% increase. However, much of this capital likely didn’t come from new buyers. Instead, it came from those who sold BTC just to buy it again — but wrapped in the form of an ETF.
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The same logic applies to Strategy. Some investors sell “pure” BTC in order to buy shares in a company that offers leveraged exposure to the asset. The problem is that $1 invested in MSTR provides less than $0.60 in actual BTC value. So even if 100% of the BTC sale proceeds go into MSTR, the overall price impact is negative — simply due to the mathematical loss of liquidity.
Volatility compression means price compression
Since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped significantly. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) noted unusually stable prices back in April, and a study from São Paulo confirmed that the current cycle is much calmer than previous ones. The absence of collapses like FTX, regular ETF inflows, and the arrival of more mature players have made Bitcoin less explosive. But this also limits its ability to rise quickly.
Who is suppressing the drivers?
A few more factors are weighing on Bitcoin’s momentum. Altcoin competition prevents Bitcoin from fully monopolizing investor attention. Its evolving role — from a high-risk asset to an index-like instrument — has dampened appetite for aggressive buying. Elevated real interest rates make fiat-based instruments more attractive in the short term. Meanwhile, the rise of derivatives on regulated exchanges allows investors to hedge or speculate without actually holding BTC.
And then there’s gold. Since the start of the year, it has gained 26% — outpacing Bitcoin’s 16% — despite being a market ten times larger.
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To make matters worse, the speculative race among new “treasury companies” is pulling capital into microcaps. Many of them trade at three to four times their Bitcoin holdings. Some — even larger players like Nakamoto (KDLY) — are valued at 23 times the BTC they hold. To buy their shares, investors are selling Bitcoin. And so, the market continues to hold itself back.
This isn’t a crisis. But it’s certainly not a Bitcoin spring, either. Even record-setting ETF inflows aren’t driving price growth when there’s no actual new capital entering the market. And it seems Bitcoin won’t advance thanks to those who hoard it — but thanks to those who bring fresh money into the game.
