WTI crude oil price rises amid supply concerns and geopolitical risks
WTI crude gains near $71.50 amid supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, trading around $71.50 per barrel, supported by supply disruptions in Russia and uncertainty over global trade policies. The bullish momentum was fueled by reports that Ukrainian drone strikes damaged a major pumping station in southern Russia, impacting Kazakhstan’s crude exports via major western firms like Chevron and ExxonMobil.
The attack on the Russian pipeline reduced crude shipments to global markets, tightening supply amid already volatile energy conditions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ producers remain committed to their planned supply increases starting in April, further shaping market sentiment. While some traders speculated on potential production cuts, recent reports indicate no plans to delay supply expansions.
Traders are also closely monitoring Russia-Ukraine peace talks scheduled in Saudi Arabia, where U.S. and Russian officials are meeting—without Ukraine’s participation. Any progress in these talks could impact oil flow disruptions and influence market expectations for future supply stability.
USOIL price dynamics (January 2025 - February 2025) Source: TradingView.
WTI price outlook: Key levels to watch
From a technical perspective, WTI is trading near a crucial pivot point at $70.39. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $71.60 is acting as a resistance level, while the 200-day EMA at $72.63 poses a major barrier to further upside movement.
If WTI breaks above $72.63, it could trigger a bullish trend shift, pushing prices toward the next resistance at $73.65. However, a failure to hold current gains might expose the market to downside risks, with immediate support at $69.31, followed by a stronger floor at $68.41. A break below these levels could reinforce the broader bearish trend in oil markets.
Market sentiment and global trade concerns
Despite supply-driven gains, oil markets face downward pressure from growing concerns over a potential global trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs has raised uncertainty in global commodity markets, adding volatility to crude pricing. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts also plays a role in market dynamics, as traders assess how inflationary pressures and interest rate decisions might affect energy demand in the coming months.
In our last update, WTI crude oil hovered near key resistance amid trade policy uncertainty. The recent pipeline attack and supply constraints have now intensified market focus on geopolitical risks and upcoming OPEC+ decisions.
