EUR/USD price struggles below $1.0460 resistance amid U.S. policy shift
The pair currently trading at 1.0440.
EUR/USD bullish momentum from early February has stalled and reversed from a high of 1.0515 to trade lower by 0.75% overall. The pair broke below the 1.0460 support level on Tuesday, extending losses to 1.0435 before staging a brief recovery in Wednesday’s Asian session.
However, the previous support at 1.0460 has now turned into resistance, capping the rebound in the European session, with EUR/USD currently trading at 1.0440.
The broader market sentiment toward the euro has turned cautious given the geopolitical concerns weighing on European currencies. Traders are closely watching developments in Russia-U.S. discussions, which could influence risk appetite. Additionally, expectations of a more transactional approach toward European NATO allies under a potential Trump administration could add further pressure on the euro.
EUR/USD outlook: Price risks deeper decline below 1.0430 support
EUR/USD price dynamics (Jan 2025 - Feb 2025). Source: TradingView
Technically, the four-hour chart shows EUR/USD at risk of further downside if the pair fails to reclaim 1.0460. The 50-day EMA at 1.0430 offers immediate support, aligning with the bullish trendline. A sustained break below this level could accelerate declines, while the daily RSI, which remains in bullish territory, suggests that buyers may still have a chance to regain control.
For EUR/USD to regain upside momentum, buyers need to push past the 1.0460 resistance and reclaim levels above 1.0515. However, failure to hold above the 50-day EMA at 1.0430 may open the door to further declines. The short-term outlook remains dependent on risk sentiment and key geopolitical developments, as traders closely monitor U.S. economic policy shifts for further directional cues.
EUR/USD price has entered a phase of retracement as ECB cuts and Trump tariffs dims bullish outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump also threatens to scale back NATO support.
