EUR/USD price holds $1.04 support as FOMC keeps rate cuts off the table
EUR/USD remains pressured after weekly decline.
EUR/USD price remained under pressure after nearly a 1% decline this week. The fiber found support at the key 1.04 level, where an upward trendline and the 100-day EMA provided a temporary floor.
Despite this, price action remains subdued, with only a 0.1% gain in the Asian and European sessions today. As North American trading begins, EUR/USD is hovering near 1.0430, with near-term resistance at 1.0460, a level that triggered a decline to 1.0400 yesterday.
The 1.0400 level has proven to be a critical support zone for EUR/USD, aligning with both the upward trendline and the 100-day EMA. This suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels, preventing further downside for now. However, resistance at 1.0460 remains a key hurdle, as sellers defended this level in previous sessions.
EUR/USD price dynamics (Jan 2025 - Feb 2025). Source: TradingView.
The latest FOMC meeting minutes reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s stance that rate cuts remain off the table until further progress on inflation is seen. Market reaction was muted, with only slight declines in front-end US Treasury yields. This has kept the US Dollar relatively firm, limiting EUR/USD’s ability to recover.
EUR/USD consolidates as traders eye U.S. and euro PMI impact
Traders now anticipate the upcoming PMI data from the US and the euro area to gauge economic momentum. January’s euro area PMIs were stronger than expected, and any signs of continued improvement could provide temporary support for the euro. Meanwhile, weekly US jobless claims data is expected today but is unlikely to cause major price moves.
EUR/USD appears set to consolidate in the near term, with price action contained between 1.0400 and 1.0460. A move above 1.0460 could shift momentum toward a short-term rebound, but broader risks remain tilted to the downside.
EUR/USD bullish momentum from early February has stalled and reversed from 1.0515. The broader market sentiment toward the euro has turned cautious given the Russia-U.S. negotiations.
