CFTC data shows declining gold speculation as prices hold at $2,740
Speculative interest wanes: Gold’s next move hinges on key $2,700 support level
Gold has taken a breather from its all-time high of $2,790 per ounce, now trading at $2,740 on November 4th. The pullback is notable, especially given the record-setting drop in October that left many investors on edge. The question on everyone’s mind: Is this just a short-term correction, or are we in for a deeper decline?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data gives us a crucial insight. On October 4th, speculative net positions peaked at 299.9K. Fast forward to November 1st, and they’ve slid to 278.7K, well below the 296.2K forecast. Even though there was a minor recovery on October 18th, the overall trend points to declining speculative interest. In financial markets, these shifts often foreshadow where prices might head next because speculative activity isn’t just a number, it reflects how bullish or bearish major players are. The steady drop in positions tells us that enthusiasm is cooling, perhaps due to a combination of profit-taking and concerns over potential downside risk. If this cautious sentiment persists, it could pressure gold further.
Key level to watch for gold
If speculative positioning stabilizes or reverses, we could see a rally attempt. For now, $2,700 is the focal point for near-term support. It’s crucial for gold to hold there. Failure to rebound at the psychological level could spark more selling.
The market’s resilience throughout the year, posting gains in eight out of the last ten months, also paints a strong narrative. Safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty is also yet to disappear. This broader market sentiment will likely determine gold’s next major move.
Gold could get another boost if the U.S. dollar softens. Its momentum this year is driven by central bank buying, Chinese investment, and demand from Western investors.
