EUR/USD price stalls below $1.053 ahead of U.S. data and trade developments
EUR/USD stalls below key resistance as U.S.-EU trade tensions rise.
The EUR/USD price uptrend in February has stalled below the 1.0530 resistance level, a price cap that has limited upside gains since late last year.
Throughout the week, the pair has remained in a tight consolidation between the 1.0530 resistance and the 1.0460 support level. The market now awaits key U.S. economic data and further developments on trade tensions between the U.S. and the Eurozone.
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for a 25% tariff on “cars and other things” from the Eurozone but did not specify a timeline. A European Commission spokesperson warned of an immediate response if the U.S. imposes unjustified trade barriers. Given the Eurozone’s fragile economic growth, new tariffs could weaken the euro, placing further downside pressure on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD price dynamics (Dec 2024 - Feb 2025). Source: TradingView
However, during today’s European session, EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.0460 support level, rising 0.2% to 1.0480. The 50-day EMA at 1.0445 is now acting as near-term support, while the daily RSI remains in bullish territory. This consolidation phase is a key determinant for the pair’s long-term trajectory, either toward a breakout above 1.0530 or a decline below 1.0460.
U.S. GDP, jobless claims, and durable goods orders to influence EUR/USD outlook
The upcoming U.S. economic releases in the North American session could influence market direction. The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 is projected at 2.3%, matching the previous quarter. A deviation from this figure may drive volatility in the dollar. Weekly jobless claims, expected at 222K compared to the previous 219K, will offer further insight into the labor market. Additionally, core durable goods orders, projected to rise 0.2%, could indicate manufacturing strength. Stronger-than-expected data may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer rate stance, potentially supporting the dollar and limiting EUR/USD gains.
EUR/USD remains in a critical consolidation phase. A breakout above 1.0530 could signal further upside, while a move below 1.0460 may open the door to deeper losses. Market participants will closely watch economic data and trade developments for the next directional move.
EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0530 but failed to break through, retreating to 1.0487 before rebounding. Weak U.S. consumer confidence data pressured the dollar and helped the pair recover.
