Silver price prediction: Fed rate outlook and geopolitics suggest consolidation
Silver stabilizes after sharp drop, key support at $30.80 holds.
Silver prices faced a sharp 5% decline last week, falling to a three-week low of $30.80. This level, previously a resistance point, now acts as key support, reinforced by a bullish trendline that has sustained silver’s uptrend since the beginning of 2025.
Despite the recent pullback, silver managed to recover by 0.85% in the Asian session on Monday, only to encounter resistance at $31.40, where the 50-day EMA capped further gains, leading to a slight retreat to $31.25 in the European session. This leaves silver trapped between a critical resistance level and the bullish trendline support, setting the stage for its next move.
The subsequent stabilization coincided with broader market factors, such as the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts, which is currently anticipated at two quarter-point reductions by year-end. But this has failed to provide significant support for the U.S. dollar, allowing silver to stabilize above support levels. Additionally, geopolitical concerns, including ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, alongside potential economic risks stemming from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, add to silver’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Silver price dynamics (Nov 2024 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Technical outlook: Silver’s next move hinges on key support at $30.80
Technical indicators further reflect silver’s indecisive movement. While the 50-day EMA reinforces resistance at $31.40, the broader bullish trendline provides support, suggesting a consolidative phase before a breakout. If silver maintains strength above $30.80, renewed buying pressure could push prices toward $31.40, and a confirmed break above this level might open the door to $32. On the downside, a failure to hold support could expose silver to further declines to retest last week’s support level at 30.80.
In the near term, silver’s outlook hinges on market sentiment surrounding the Fed’s policy direction and geopolitical developments. If risk aversion remains elevated, silver may attract renewed interest, potentially challenging resistance levels. Conversely, stronger U.S. dollar momentum could weigh on prices, keeping silver confined within its current range.
Silver dropped 3.7% in two days before finding support at $31.30 near the 50-day EMA. Trump’s tariff proposals raised inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of higher rates.
