Gold price prediction: Consolidation between Fib levels as labor data fuels uncertainty
Gold consolidates as traders eye key resistance
Gold prices have held within a tight range after rising in the early days of March, consolidating between $2,930 and $2,895 since March 4.
This range is defined by key Fibonacci levels, with $2,930 marked by the 0.786% retracement and $2,895 aligned with the 0.5% level. As of today’s European session, gold is trading near $2,910. The market remains poised for a breakout, with traders weighing Federal Reserve policy signals and macroeconomic factors supporting safe-haven demand.
Gold’s price action suggests that a break above the $2,930 resistance could set the stage for a challenge of the previous all-time high. The broader uptrend remains intact, and the daily RSI remains in bullish territory, supporting the case for further gains. Conversely, a breakdown below $2,895 would risk erasing gold’s earlier gains in March and could open the door for a deeper retracement.
Gold price dynamics (Feb 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Gold price outlook: Inflation risk and mixed labor data weigh on gold
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book highlighted a rise in overall economic activity but also noted that price pressures remain elevated, partly influenced by Trump’s trade policies. The latest ADP data showed a sharp slowdown in private-sector hiring for February, raising concerns about labor market resilience. However, the ISM Services PMI indicated ongoing business expansion, with its Prices Paid sub-index jumping above 60. This suggests that producers face higher costs, which could lead to a second wave of inflationary pressures.
With inflation risks resurfacing and the labor market showing mixed signals, gold traders closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s stance. If upcoming data reinforces inflation concerns, expectations for a prolonged hawkish Fed could limit gold’s upside. However, if economic weakness becomes more evident, gold’s safe-haven appeal could strengthen, potentially driving prices above the $2,930 resistance zone.
Gold prices rose in March as trade tensions escalated due to new U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The metal faced resistance at $2,920, leading to consolidation.
