Silver price prediction: XAG/USD slips from 6-day high as jobless claims data looms
Silver price retreats after breaking above $32.50, slipping to $32.30 in the European session.
Silver price rally within the first week of March has come under pressure as prices retreat from recent highs.
After breaking above the key $32.50 resistance level on Wednesday, silver reached a six-day high of $32.70. However, the European session on Thursday saw a reversal, with the price slipping below $32.50 to trade near $32.30. This move reinforces the significance of $32.50 as a key resistance level and casts doubt on a fourth consecutive day of gains.
Despite the pullback, silver's technical indicators remain supportive of a potential rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both the daily and 4-hour charts continues to hold in bullish territory. This suggests that the ongoing uptrend is intact, increasing the likelihood of buyers re-entering the market.
Silver price dynamics (Dec 2024 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
US, Canada, and China trade tensions add complexity to silver outlook
Broader market factors such as the U.S. escalated trade tensions with Canada, Mexico, and China, are adding complexity to silver’s outlook. An additional 10% duty was imposed on Chinese imports, bringing the cumulative rate to 20%. In response, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on CAD 155 billion worth of U.S. goods, while China introduced levies of 10%-15% on select American imports and new export restrictions set to take effect on March 10. These trade developments have injected uncertainty into global markets, fueling concerns over economic slowdown and potential inflationary pressures.
Investors are now looking ahead to today’s US Initial Jobless Claims for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially weighing on silver prices. Conversely, weaker data could reignite safe-haven demand for the metal, pushing prices back above $32.50 and increasing the odds of another upward move.
For now, silver’s near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to reclaim the $32.50 resistance level. A decisive break above this level would open the door for further gains, while failure to do so could keep the metal range-bound or trigger further declines.
Silver gained over 1% on Wednesday, extending its March rally past 3% amid strong bullish momentum. The breakout above $31.90 turned this level into support.
