Gold price prediction: Fed caution and NFP data keep markets in consolidation mode
The metal is trading around $2,910,
Gold price is consolidating for the fourth consecutive day, fluctuating between the Fibonacci 0.786 level at $2,930 and the 0.5 level at $2,895. Early in the Asian session today, gold found support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, reinforced by the 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart. As of the European session, the metal is trading around $2,910, the midpoint of its consolidation range.
The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts continues to shape market sentiment, with officials signaling a patient approach amid economic uncertainties. Recent comments from Fed policymakers suggest that while rate cuts may be on the table later in the year, the central bank remains data-dependent, keeping traders on edge ahead of key economic releases like the NFP report.
Gold price outlook: RSI signals bullish momentum despite consolidation
Gold price dynamics (Feb 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Despite the consolidation, the daily and 4-hour RSI indicators remain in bullish territory, suggesting that buying momentum is still present. This is supported by the broader expectation that a softer US labor market could reinforce the Fed’s case for easing, which would weaken the dollar further and benefit gold. If the NFP data confirms a slowdown, gold could break out of its consolidation and challenge record highs.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report, however, could shift sentiment. If labor market resilience pushes the Fed to delay or reduce the extent of rate cuts, the dollar could rebound, pressuring gold lower. In this case, a break below $2,895 could erase March’s gains and lead to further downside.
The upcoming NFP report will likely determine gold’s next move. A bullish breakout above $2,930 could pave the way for a new record high, while a break below $2,895 could trigger a deeper retracement.
Gold consolidated between $2,930 and $2,895 as traders assessed Federal Reserve signals. The price tested key Fibonacci levels, with $2,930 acting as resistance and $2,895 as support.
