Gold price prediction: XAU/USD consolidation supported by 50 EMA and safe-haven flows
Gold consolidates near $2,930 as traders await breakout.
Gold price has been consolidating near the $2,930 resistance level after recovering more than 3% from its recent decline to $2,835.
The metal is now approximately 1% away from its all-time high of $2,956, with price action largely constrained between the $2,930 resistance and the $2,895 support over the past four trading days. The 50-day EMA on the 4-hour chart is now providing a solid base for the consolidation, while the Fibonacci 0.786 level reinforces resistance at $2,930.
Gold's price movement has been influenced by the uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies and the Federal Reserve expectations. U.S. President Donald Trump briefly imposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods under the USMCA trade agreement before reversing the decision. However, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are still set to take effect on Wednesday. This uncertainty is fueling safe-haven demand for gold.
Additionally, weaker U.S. labor market data has increased speculation about multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The February Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 160,000. January's figures were also revised lower to 125,000 from 143,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while annual wage inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.9%. The weaker labor market outlook pressures the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive as a hedge.
Gold RSI holds neutral-to-bullish as gold price action remains range-bound
Gold price dynamics (Feb 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
The consolidation phase has affected Gold RSI, which remains near neutral-to-bullish territory, suggesting the market is waiting for a fresh catalyst. The prevailing sentiment favors further upside as long as gold holds above $2,895, with buyers potentially targeting the all-time high of $2,956.
A contrarian view suggests that if gold fails to break $2,930, selling pressure could push it below $2,895, exposing the metal to a decline toward $2,835. However, with rate cuts expected and tariff uncertainty persisting, gold remains well-positioned for a potential breakout to new highs in the near term.
The Fed Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts kept traders uncertain, limiting gold’s upside. The metal consolidated for four days between $2,895 and $2,930, with support at the 50 EMA.
