Natural gas price forecast: Futures rebound as supply risks mount
Natural gas futures rebound as supply concerns mount
European natural gas futures climbed past €40/MWh on Monday, recovering from the five-month low of €37.8/MWh touched on March 6. The upward momentum was fueled by fresh supply concerns after Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, disrupting regional flows.
Despite a recent downward trend due to mild weather and EU discussions on alternative energy sources, the attacks reinforced market uncertainty, halting the price drop. Furthermore, EU negotiations on Slovakia’s gas supply played a role, with Brussels potentially easing restrictions in exchange for Slovakian support for Ukraine aid and defense spending.
Natural gas price dynamics (Feb 2025 - Mar 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical outlook: Can natural gas sustain its rally?
Natural gas (NG) prices surged to $4.548, decisively breaking through the key resistance at $4.484. This breakout signals renewed bullish momentum, with the next major resistance at $4.703 serving as the critical level to confirm sustained upside. If buyers maintain control and push beyond this level, an extension toward $4.900 could follow.
On the downside, support levels remain strong. The 50-day EMA at $4.206 now serves as a primary base, while the 200-day EMA at $3.778 remains a long-term support zone. A healthy pullback toward $4.484 would provide a key retest, but failure at this level could trigger declines toward $4.132 and even $3.873.
Natural gas price prediction: Key levels to watch
The bullish breakout is encouraging, but NG must hold above $4.484 to sustain momentum. If sellers re-enter the market, a reversal toward support zones is likely. Traders should closely monitor price action near the $4.703 resistance, as a breakout above this level would reinforce further gains toward $4.900.
As mentioned earlier, natural gas has faced bearish pressure from milder weather and improving EU supply strategies. However, new geopolitical risks and infrastructure damage have now shifted sentiment, pushing prices back above €40/MWh.
