11.11.2024
Sholanke Dele
Analyst at Traders Union
11.11.2024

EUR/USD: Germany political turmoil pushes pair price to multi-month lows

EUR/USD: Germany political turmoil pushes pair price to multi-month lows German political turmoil fuels EUR/USD slide as speculators increase market activity

​The EUR/USD kicked off the week on a downbeat note to 4-month lows, trading below 1.067, a level not seen since June. This notable dip recorded through the Tokyo and European sessions, reflects growing worries about Europe’s economic trajectory and political terrain. Traders looking at the euro’s position may see this decline as a critical moment, testing the resilience of the currency at a critical support level.

Regarding European politics, Germany’s internal problems have added a fresh layer of concern over potential disruptions because it is the eurozone’s largest economy. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under mounting pressure to address waning parliamentary support. Reports indicate he may bring forward a vote of confidence before Christmas, a move that could lead to snap elections if his coalition fails to regain its footing. Markets view the instability in Berlin as more than just a local issue because Germany’s economic strength has long been a stabilizing force for the eurozone, and any political upheaval could spill over into broader economic policies.

EUR/USD bears capitalize on political unrest and affected liquidity

The impact of this German political unrest, combined with weaker economic indicators across Europe, has attracted speculators looking to capitalize on the euro’s slide. Given the Armistice Day bank holiday in France, market movements have become increasingly reactive due to the affected liquidity causing speculators to step in more heavily than usual. This shift towards a more speculator-driven market raises the risk of sudden price swings.

With EUR/USD now hovering below the 1.067 mark, analysts are eyeing further downside if economic and political tensions persist. A sustained drop could signal a deeper decline, potentially opening the door to fresh multi-month lows. On the flip side, any unexpected stability from the German government or economic data could offer some support.

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