Nvidia stock price forecast: bullish rebound ahead of GTC conference
Nvidia stock eyes recovery ahead of the GTC conference, with key support at $113 and resistance at $130.
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) closed at $121.67, up 5.3% from the previous trading session. Despite this rebound, the stock remains down 9.4% year-to-date, reflecting broader weakness in the AI and semiconductor sectors.
The recent price action suggests that Nvidia may be in the early stages of a recovery, but significant resistance levels remain ahead.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia is trading above its 20-day moving average but remains below its 50-day moving average at $126.45 and the 200-day moving average at $130.10. This mixed signal reflects lingering uncertainty in market sentiment. Key support levels are seen at $113 and $96 — a break below these levels could trigger a deeper decline. Conversely, resistance is evident at $130 and $153 — the latter being Nvidia’s all-time high reached on January 7, 2025.
NVDA stock price dynamics (January 2024 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
A golden cross — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — would be a bullish sign, but Nvidia's current downtrend suggests that such a crossover is unlikely in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, indicating that the stock is neither overbought not oversold. The recent bounce from the $113 support level suggests that buyers are stepping in at lower levels, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term uptrend if momentum continues.
General market context and recent developments
Nvidia’s recent weakness can be attributed to growing concerns about AI sector growth and capital expenditure adjustments among major hyperscale cloud service providers. Since hitting a record high of $153.13 on January 7, 2025, Nvidia has struggled to regain upward momentum as some AI companies, including China's DeepSeek, have demonstrated that AI models can operate with fewer and less powerful chips. This development has raised concerns about the long-term demand for Nvidia’s high-end processors.
However, anticipation is building around Nvidia's upcoming GTC (GPU Technology Conference), scheduled for March 17-21 in San Jose, California. CEO Jensen Huang is expected to unveil the GB300 AI chip, which could start shipping in May 2025. Additionally, Huang is likely to preview the next-generation Rubin GPU, set for release in 2026, which will succeed the current Blackwell series processors.
Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic about Nvidia's prospects. BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya maintained a "buy" rating with a price target of $200, citing Nvidia’s dominance in AI processors and its strong competitive moat. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter reiterated his "buy" rating with a lower price target of $175, noting that the GTC conference tends to benefit Nvidia’s supply chain more than its stock price. In contrast, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh reduced his price target to $168 from $175, citing valuation pressure and slowing AI growth.
Short-term NVDA price prediction and outlook
In the short term, Nvidia’s stock is likely to remain volatile as investors react to news from the GTC conference and broader market conditions. A successful launch of the GB300 AI chip and positive commentary on the Rubin GPU could drive Nvidia’s stock toward the $130 resistance level in the coming weeks. However, failure to meet market expectations or any signs of weakness in AI demand could push the stock back toward the $113 support level.
The most probable scenario is a gradual recovery toward the $130-$135 range if Nvidia delivers solid updates at the GTC conference. However, a break above the $130 resistance will require sustained buying momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions. If Nvidia’s updates underwhelm, the stock could test the $113 support level and possibly trend lower toward $96 if broader market weakness persists.
Overall, Nvidia’s short-term trajectory will hinge on the market’s response to the GTC conference and the company’s ability to reinforce its leadership in the AI sector amid growing competitive pressures.
In January, Nvidia reported a record $130.5 billion in revenue for its best financial year, up 114% year-over-year and beating forecasts of $128.6 billion. The data center segment drove growth with $115.1 billion, a 142% increase from the previous year.
