Apple stock price forecast: Navigating recent declines amid market volatility
The recent weakness in Apple's stock price can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and company-specific challenges.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) has experienced significant downward pressure in recent weeks, with shares falling nearly 11% last week—the largest weekly decline since November 2022.
This selloff has contributed to a total year-to-date decline of over 14%, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is down nearly 6% over the same period. The recent pullback pushed Apple's stock below critical technical levels, including the 200-day moving average—a widely monitored indicator of long-term market trends.
The stock is currently hovering around the $214 price level. If the support level of $219 fails to hold, the next key support points are seen at $207 and $197. On the upside, immediate resistance is found near $237, followed by a more significant barrier at $247. The recent symmetrical triangle breakdown below the 200-day moving average, combined with elevated trading volume, indicates that further downward momentum is possible in the short term.
AAPL stock price dynamics (January 2024 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory, currently sitting near 30. This suggests that the stock may be nearing a technical rebound zone. However, the stock will need to reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average, currently at $232, to establish a more constructive bullish outlook. The 50-day moving average remains well below the 200-day level, reinforcing the bearish near-term trend.
Market context: AI delays, tariff concerns, and analyst perspectives
The recent weakness in Apple's stock price can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and company-specific challenges. Broader market volatility, fueled by concerns over potential tariffs and slowing global economic growth, has weighed on the tech sector. Apple has also faced increased scrutiny over its AI strategy, with delays in releasing AI-driven updates for Siri raising concerns about the company's ability to keep pace with competitors like Microsoft and Google in the AI race.
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett noted that while Apple's AI rollout has been slower than anticipated, the company retains strong fundamentals. "Apple's stalwart stature as a seller of indispensable devices, combined with its brand and balance sheet strength, positions it to weather these headwinds," Crockett wrote.
Meanwhile, Ben Reitzes of Melius Research maintains a positive long-term outlook on Apple's stock. He expects that new product innovations, including foldable iPhones and enhanced AI integration, could drive significant revenue growth over the next few years. Reitzes projects iPhone revenue to grow close to 10% in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, even with limited unit growth.
Potential tariffs also pose a notable risk. If tariffs are imposed on Apple’s Chinese-manufactured products, gross margins could decline by up to 1.7%, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm recently lowered its price target for Apple from $275 to $252 to reflect these potential headwinds.
Short-term share price movements
In the short term, Apple’s stock remains vulnerable to further downside pressure, particularly if the stock breaches the $219 support level. A decisive breakdown below this level could push the stock toward the next support at $207, with an extension toward $197 if broader market weakness persists.
On the upside, if Apple regains positive momentum and reclaims the 200-day moving average at $232, a rebound toward $237 is possible. A sustained move above this level would open the door for a test of the $247 resistance zone.
Investors should closely monitor developments related to Apple's AI strategy and any updates on U.S.-China trade tensions, as these factors will heavily influence near-term price action. While the stock may face continued volatility, Apple’s strong brand, loyal customer base, and steady cash flow position it well for a potential recovery once macroeconomic and strategic challenges stabilize.
Apple’s stock fell 10% over the past month, underperforming the Nasdaq's 5% decline, despite a strong five-year return of 252.98%. The company’s $500 billion U.S. investment plan supports long-term growth, but economic concerns and legal challenges remain key risks.
