Apple stock price forecast: AI delays and market challenges weigh on outlook
Apple faces broader market pressures from potential tariffs and regulatory scrutiny.
As of March 20, 2025, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is trading at $215.24, reflecting a modest increase of 0.012% from the previous close.
The stock has experienced a sharp decline of approximately 18% from its December 2024 peak of $259, erasing over $700 billion in market capitalization. This sell-off has placed AAPL under significant technical pressure, with the stock now trading below its 200-day moving average — a key indicator of long-term trend strength.
AAPL has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which often signals a continuation of the prevailing trend. Given that the recent trend has been downward, this pattern suggests the potential for further losses unless the stock breaks out to the upside with strong volume. The key support levels to monitor are $207 and $197. A break below $207 could intensify selling pressure, while $197 serves as a crucial psychological level that, if breached, could open the door to a deeper decline.
AAPL stock price dynamics (January 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Resistance levels are established at $237 and $247. A recovery above $237 would indicate renewed buying interest and could lead to a test of the $247 level. Clearing this higher resistance would suggest that bullish momentum is returning. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, indicating that the stock may be due for a short-term bounce. However, the downtrend remains intact, and any upside movement would need to be confirmed by a sustained increase in volume.
Market context: AI delays, tariffs, and analyst sentiment
Apple’s recent decision to delay the rollout of its artificial intelligence (AI) enhancements has raised concerns among investors about the company’s competitive position. The much-anticipated AI upgrade to Siri, originally scheduled for release with the next iOS update, has now been pushed to early 2026. This delay has diminished hopes for a boost in iPhone upgrade rates this fiscal year, contributing to the recent stock decline.
In addition to AI setbacks, Apple faces broader market pressures from potential tariffs and regulatory scrutiny. The European Commission has targeted Apple under the Digital Markets Act, which could result in trade friction between the U.S. and the European Union. If retaliatory tariffs are imposed, Apple’s profit margins could suffer, particularly considering the company’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing and that approximately 40% of its sales come from the U.S. Analysts estimate that increased tariffs could reduce Apple’s gross margins by up to 1.7%, a material headwind to profitability.
Analysts remain divided on Apple’s outlook. Evercore ISI maintains an "Outperform" rating on the stock, raising its price target from $260 to $275 and highlighting Apple’s in-house chip designs as a long-term strength. Evercore expects mid-single-digit revenue growth and low-to-mid-teen percentage increases in earnings per share over the next few years. Conversely, some analysts have downgraded the stock, citing concerns over Apple’s perceived lag in AI development and the potential for tariffs to weigh on future earnings.
Price prediction and scenarios
Apple’s short-term outlook remains challenging. If the stock fails to hold the $207 support level, a decline toward $197 is likely. A breach below $197 could result in increased selling pressure, pushing the stock toward the $180–$185 range. On the upside, a rebound above $237 would indicate renewed buying interest, with the next resistance level at $247. If Apple can decisively break above $247, the stock could target the $260 range, but this would require a shift in market sentiment and positive news regarding AI development or trade negotiations.
Apple’s stock dropped 10% over the past month, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s 5% decline. While Apple’s five-year total shareholder return of 252.98% remains impressive, economic uncertainty, legal challenges, and governance issues could weigh on future growth despite a $500 billion U.S. investment plan.
