Nvidia stock price forecast: Death cross in sight
Investor sentiment toward semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, has been mixed.
As of March 20, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $117.52. Recent technical patterns suggest potential bearish signals, raising concerns among investors.
A significant development is the looming possibility of a "death cross," where the 50-day moving average (50-DMA) crosses below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). This is typically considered a bearish indicator that signals the potential for continued downside.
Currently, the 50-DMA stands at approximately $129.04, while the 200-DMA is around $127.68. With the stock price now trading below both of these averages, technical pressure is mounting. If the death cross forms and historical trends repeat, Nvidia could face additional downside pressure in the coming weeks.
NVDA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Key support levels to monitor are at $105 and $96, which could serve as potential bounce points if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, resistance is expected at $130 and $153. A decisive break above $130 could signal the beginning of a recovery, but failure to hold above key support levels may lead to further weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering near 40, suggesting that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Market Context
Nvidia’s recent market performance has been shaped by both internal developments and broader market dynamics. The stock fell by 3.4% following CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech at the GTC conference. Despite announcing advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and new partnerships, including one with General Motors, the market's reaction was lukewarm. This suggests that investors may have already priced in these developments or expected more concrete near-term financial gains.
Broader market conditions have also contributed to Nvidia's recent volatility. Major stock indices, including the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, have been under pressure due to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, rising interest rates, and mixed economic data. Inflation remains above target levels, and the Fed’s hawkish tone has led to increased uncertainty in the equity markets.
Investor sentiment toward semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, has been mixed. While the long-term outlook for AI and high-performance computing remains strong, concerns about cyclical downturns in the chip market and geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan (a key player in the semiconductor supply chain) have weighed on the sector. Nvidia's valuation remains elevated compared to its peers, increasing the risk of further downside if earnings growth slows.
Price Forecast and Scenarios
Based on current technical and market factors, Nvidia's stock could face continued downward pressure in the short term. If the death cross materializes and follows historical patterns, the stock could decline toward the key support levels of $105 and $96. A break below $96 could accelerate selling and lead to a deeper correction.
On the upside, a sustained move above the $130 resistance level would be required to signal the start of a recovery. This would likely depend on improving market conditions and stronger-than-expected earnings or guidance from Nvidia. Longer-term prospects remain positive due to the company’s leadership in AI and high-performance computing. However, in the near term, heightened volatility and technical weakness suggest a cautious approach.
Nvidia plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars over the next four years to source US-made chips and electronics, shifting its supply chain strategy. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that Nvidia’s latest chips and AI servers can now be produced domestically through partnerships with TSMC and Foxconn.
