WTI crude price hovers near $68 as ceasefire talks raise Russian supply concerns
WTI trades sideways near $68 amid Ukraine ceasefire talks and Russian oil supply uncertainty
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower to around $68 per barrel on Monday, extending a two-day losing streak, as optimism over potential ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict sparked fears of increased Russian oil exports. Diplomatic talks held Sunday between Ukrainian and U.S. officials in Riyadh have fueled expectations that a reduction in hostilities could pave the way for more Russian crude entering global markets.
A follow-up meeting between U.S. and Russian officials is expected Monday to discuss a potential Black Sea ceasefire.
Traders are cautiously watching developments, especially in light of comments from Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who stressed the need to protect energy infrastructure. According to Reuters, some analysts believe the discussions may even lead to an easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities noted that such expectations are placing downward pressure on prices, despite broader geopolitical risks still lingering.
USOIL price dynamics (Feb 2025 - Mar 2025) Source: TradingView.
Iraq output plans and OPEC+ revival further muddy supply outlook
Adding to the supply-side narrative, Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced plans to raise the nation’s oil production capacity to over 6 million barrels per day by 2029. A fresh agreement with BP aims to redevelop four Kirkuk oil and gas fields as part of this expansion. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to modestly increase output by 138,000 bpd starting in April, partially reversing prior cuts.
Despite these pressures, technical indicators hint at a potential shift. WTI is holding just above key moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs located at $67.67 and $67.91, respectively. As long as the price stays above the pivot support at $67.63, short-term bullish sentiment could persist. Resistance remains near $68.60, with further upside possible toward $69.46 if momentum builds.
Outlook: Supply themes dominate, but technicals offer stability
WTI crude remains in a wait-and-watch zone, trading sideways as markets digest geopolitical developments and looming changes in global supply. If peace talks progress or U.S. sanctions ease, additional Russian supply could drag prices lower. However, bullish technical signals and lingering Middle East tensions continue to support a floor near $67.
As noted earlier, oil remains trapped in a battle between demand uncertainty and supply shocks. While U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ cuts create upside risk, geopolitical shifts like the Ukraine ceasefire talks may reopen bearish flows. Until clarity emerges, price action may stay range-bound.
