Boeing stock reflects growing optimism following F-47 contract announcement

​Boeing's stock (ticker: BA) has experienced notable fluctuations following the recent announcement of the F-47 fighter jet contract. 

As of March 24, 2025, BA is trading at $178.11, marking a 3.1% increase from the previous close. This uptick reflects growing investor optimism surrounding Boeing's defense sector prospects. The announcement of the F-47 contract appears to have catalyzed a bullish shift in Boeing’s stock momentum.

From a technical perspective, Boeing’s stock has broken above its 50-day moving average, which currently sits around $175. This is a bullish signal indicating that short-term momentum is positive. The 200-day moving average remains lower at approximately $168, further reinforcing the upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 65, which is approaching the overbought threshold of 70 but still leaves room for additional upside before signaling overextension.

BA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.

Support levels are identified at $172, where buyers have previously stepped in to stabilize the price. Resistance is noted around $180, which represents the recent high following the F-47 contract news. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward the $185 to $190 range. Conversely, if the stock fails to hold above the $175 mark, a pullback toward the $172 support level is possible. Trading volume has increased significantly since the contract announcement, indicating strong market interest and reinforcing the positive sentiment.

Market context and implications of the F-47 contract

The U.S. Air Force's decision to award Boeing the contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet, designated as the F-47, represents a significant milestone for the company. The F-47 is intended to replace the aging F-22 Raptor fleet and will feature cutting-edge stealth and air superiority capabilities. The contract, valued at over $20 billion, is expected to revitalize Boeing's defense segment, particularly its fighter production line in St. Louis, Missouri. This strategic win positions Boeing as a key player in the future of U.S. air dominance and strengthens its competitive edge against rival defense contractors.

This contract win arrives at a crucial time for Boeing, which has faced significant challenges in its commercial aviation segment. Ongoing issues with the 737 MAX program and supply chain disruptions have weighed on Boeing’s financial performance. The F-47 contract not only diversifies Boeing’s revenue streams but also enhances its reputation within the defense sector.

The market’s reaction has been immediate. Boeing's stock jumped over 5% following the announcement, while competitor Lockheed Martin's stock dropped approximately 7%. Lockheed Martin has long been the dominant contractor for advanced fighter jets, particularly with its F-35 program. Boeing’s ability to secure the NGAD contract suggests that the company has regained strategic positioning within the defense industry.

Scenarios for Boeing stock

In the short term, Boeing's stock is anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory, driven by positive sentiment from the F-47 contract award. Should BA decisively break through the $180 resistance level, it could target the next resistance at $185, with potential upside toward $190 if bullish momentum continues. However, if the stock faces selling pressure, it may retrace to the $172 support level, where buyers are expected to step in.

Investors should monitor key factors that could influence Boeing's stock performance, including progress on the F-47 program. Any delays or cost overruns could temper investor enthusiasm. Broader defense spending trends and government budget decisions will also play a crucial role in determining future contract valuations. Additionally, Boeing's commercial aviation recovery remains a critical component of its overall financial health. Strong demand for the 737 MAX and the 787 Dreamliner could provide additional support for Boeing’s stock.

In January, Boeing reported nearly $3 billion in charges in Q4 2024 due to labor strikes, job cuts, and government program issues. This will lead to a larger-than-expected loss of $5.46 per share, well above the forecasted $1.80 loss.